Table 3. Negative binomial regression results for mortality groups in 2008–2009.
| Explanatory variable | All-cause mortalityIRR (95% CI)P value | All cancersmortalityIRR (95% CI)P value | Coronary HeartDisease mortalityIRR (95% CI)P value | Stroke mortalityIRR (95% CI)P value | Chronic ObstructivePulmonary Diseasemortality IRR(95% CI) P value |
| Year of mortality counts | 1.07 (1.05, 1.09) <0.0001 | 1.02 (1.0, 1.03) 0.001 | 1.12 (1.1, 1.2) <0.0001 | 1.1 (1.07, 1.12) <0.0001 | 1.07 (1.04, 1.1) <0.0001 |
| Deprivation indices 2007 | 1.005 (1.002,1.007) <0.0001 | 1.006 (1.004, 1.008) <0.0001 | 1.004 (1.001, 1.007) 0.009 | 1.006 (1.001, 1.01) 0.008 | 1.014 (1.01, 1.02) <0.0001 |
| White ethnicity | 1.007 (1.005, 1.009) <0.0001 | 1.008 (1.006, 1.009) <0.0001 | 1.01 (1.008, 1.02) <0.0001 | 1.009 (1.004, 1.02) <0.0001 | 1.012 (1.01, 1.02) <0.0001 |
| % of adults who were smokers in 2006–8 | 1.003 (0.99, 1.01) 0.25 | 1.001 (0.997, 1.01) 0.55 | 1.004 (0.99, 1.01) 0.15 | 0.99 (0.98, 1.01) 0.07 | 1.008 (1.001, 1.02) 0.06 |
| % of adults who were obese in 2006–8 | 1.004 (0.99, 1.01) 0·13 | 1.005 (1.001, 1.009) 0.004 | 0.998 (0.99, 1·01) 0.53 | 1.01 (1.001, 1.02) 0.03 | 1.008 (0.99, 1.02) 0.·08 |
| % of population who are male | 0.99 (0.96, 1.01) 0.16 | 0.99 (0.97, 1.01) 0.12 | 0.98 (0.94, 1.01) 0.10 | 1.02 (0.98, 1.07) 0.21 | 0.94 (0.90, 0.99) 0.004 |
| % of population aged 65 or more years | 1.04 (1.03, 1.05) <0.0001 | 1·04 (1·03, 1·05) <0·0001 | 1.03 (1.02, 1.05) <0.0001 | 1.08 (1.06, 1.10) <0.0001 | 1.01 (1.003, 1.03) 0.01 |
| % of GP registered list on diabetes register | 1.04 (1.01, 1.07) 0.0004 | 1.01 (0.99, 1.03) 0.19 | 1.14 (1.09, 1.19) <0.0001 | 1.08 (1.03, 1.13) 0.0001 | Not used |
| % of GP registered list on hypertension register | 0.99 (0.97, 1.01) 0.14 | Not used | 0.97 (0.95,0.99) 0.006 | 0.94 (0.91, 0.97) <0.0001 | Not used |
| % of over 65 s given influenza immunisation | 0.997 (0.994, 1.01)0.18 | Not used | Not used | Not used | Not used |
| % of NHS smoking cessation clinic attenders self-reporting stopped at 4 weeks | 0.999 (0.998, 1.01)0.30 | 0.999 (0.995, 0.999) 0.19 | Not used | 0.999 (0.996, 1.001)0.19 | 0.998 (0.995, 1.01) 0.17 |
| % of patients with recalled perception of being able to see preferred GP | 0.999 (0.·997, 1.01)0.92 | 0.997 (0.995, 0.999) 0.009 | 0.999 (0.995, 1.01) 0.77 | 1.0002 (0.99, 1.01) 0.93 | 0.993 (0.98, 0.998) 0.02 |
| % of CHD patients on aspirin | Not used | Not used | 0.99 (0.97, 1.01) 0.22 | Not used | Not used |
| % of stroke patients on aspirin | Not used | Not used | Not used | 0.99 (0.96, 1.02) 0.38 | Not used |
| % of CHD patients with last cholesterol <5 mmol/L | Not used | Not used | 0.996 (0.98, 1.01) 0.32 | Not used | Not used |
| % of stroke patients with last cholesterol <5 mmol/L | Not used | Not used | Not used | 0.999 (0.992, 1.01) 0.99 | Not used |
| % of COPD patients giveninfluenza immunisation | Not used | Not used | Not used | Not used | 0.993 (0.98, 1.01) 0.36 |
Significant predictors in bold.
Columns = mortality groups, Rows = explanatory variables.
In each cell, where there are figures:
In order, the first figures are incident rate ratios (IRR); followed by 95% confidence intervals in parentheses; followed by significance levels.
Statistical model: negative binomial regression, using the log of the primary care trust size as an offset.
GP = general practitioner.