Table 2.

Example calculation of black male expected heterosexually acquired HIV cases and cost; SC 2009 Medicaid birth cohort.

Cohort age	Expected cases by year at current circumcision rates (populationa  × age/gender/race specific incidence rate)	Expected heterosexually acquired cases by year (cases per year ×  % heterosexually acquired)b	Total acquired cases by year if no circumcision (heterosexually acquired cases by year × calculated factor)c	Additional acquired cases expected if no circumcision (total cases-expected cases)	Lifetime HIV treatment cost for additional cases acquired per year (discounted to time of infection) d
13	6399 × .00018 = 1.15	1.15 × .227 = .26	.26 × 1.8 = .47	.47 − .26 = .21	.21 × $377,360 = $78,978
14	6399 × .00018 = 1.15	1.15 × .227 = .26	.26 × 1.8 = .47	.47 − .26 = .21	.21 × $377,360 = $78,978
15	6399 × .00018 = 1.15	1.15 × .227 = .26	.26 × 1.8 = .47	.47 − .26 = .21	.21 × $377,360 = $78,978

^a2009 SC medicaid birth cohort—black male population.

^bCDC HIV surveillance report statistics on diagnosis of HIV infection by race/ethnicity, gender, and transmission category (22.7% of black male HIV infections were reported as heterosexually transmitted).

^cSee Table 3 for explanation of factor calculation.

^dUsing Schackman et al's discounted lifetime HIV treatment cost of $303,100 (in $US2004) inflated to $US2010 for a lifetime treatment cost of $377,360 per case.