Table 3. Positive predictive value of the clinical score and the WHO criteria.
| Predictor | N | VL≥40 copies (n = 65) | VL≥5000 copies (n = 47) |
| Score | |||
| - 1 | 2 | 1 (50%) | 1 (50%) |
| - 2 | 17 | 11 (65%) | 4 (24%) |
| - 3 | 32 | 20 (63%) | 13 (41%) |
| - 4 | 21 | 13 (62%) | 11 (52%) |
| - 5 | 6 | 6 (100%) | 4 (67%) |
| - 6 | 7 | 7 (100%) | 7 (100%) |
| - 7 | 4 | 4 (100%) | 4 (100%) |
| - 8 | 3 | 3 (100%) | 3 (100%) |
| Score cut-offs | |||
| Score≥1 | 92 | 65 (71%) | 47 (51%) |
| Score≥2 | 90 | 64 (71%) | 46 (51%) |
| Score≥3 | 73 | 53 (72%) | 42 (58%) |
| Score≥4 | 41 | 33 (81%) | 29 (71%) |
| Score≥5 | 20 | 20 (100%) | 18 (90%) |
| Score≥6 | 14 | 14 (100%) | 14 (100%) |
| Predictive value of each predictor in the score | |||
| CD4-count <100 after ≥12 months of ART | 27 | 25 (93%) | 24 (89%) |
| ≥25%drop in CD4 while on ART | 84 | 58 (69%) | 40 (48%) |
| ≥50% drop in CD4 while on ART | 71 | 48 (68%) | 32 (45%) |
| CD4-count drops back to baseline | 55 | 40 (73%) | 28 (51%) |
| Prior exposure to HAART | 4 | 2(50%) | 2(50%) |
| Hemoglobin-drop ≥1 g/dl | 27 | 17 (63%) | 15 (56%) |
| New or recurrent papular pruritic eruption | 27 | 24 (89%) | 23 (85%) |
| Adherence <95% by VAS | 15 | 15 (100%) | 14 (93%) |
| Predictive value of WHO-criteria | |||
| Any criteria | 92 | 65 (71%) | 47 (51%) |
| Immunological criteria only | 75 | 49 (65%) | 33 (44%) |
| Clinical criteria only | 1 | 1 (100%) | 1 (100%) |
| Immunological and clinical criteria | 16 | 15 (94%) | 13 (81%) |
Clinical score and WHO-criteria as predictors for a detectable viral load (≥40 copies) or viral failure (≥5’000 copies) among the 92 patients analysed for the study.
VL: Viral load. WHO: World Health Organization.