Table 2.
Predicted outcomes and resource use over 10 years, per 1000 women treated
| Recommended strategy | Cytology only follow-up | HPV test of cure—sentinel sites protocol | HPV test of cure—extended follow-up protocol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Health outcomes | |||
| Residual underlying cases of CIN3+ at 10 years | 29.1 | 20.7 | 21.5 |
| Residual underlying cases of CIN3+ averted compared with current practice | — | 8.4 | 7.6 |
| Cost per additional underlying CIN3+ case averted at 10 years compared with current practice | −£1120 (cost saving) | £6474 | |
| Resource use | |||
| Colposcopies | 406 | 368 | 447 |
| Re-treatments*: | 217 | 272 | 275 |
| At 6 months | 80 | 167 | 167 |
| Between 1 and 10 years | 137 | 104 | 108 |
| Cytology tests | 6197 | 4126 | 5154 |
| HPV tests | — | 1166 | 2035 |
| Costs | |||
| Discounted at 3.5% per year | £358 222 | £348 834 | £407 274 |
CIN=cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; HPV=human papillomavirus.
*Number of re-treatments includes treatment for low grade lesions and cone biopsies done after discordant cytology and colposcopy or unsatisfactory colposcopy after moderate or severe dyskaryosis cytology.