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. 2012 Feb 16;140(12):2290–2301. doi: 10.1017/S0950268812000131

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© Cambridge University Press 2012

The online version of this article is published within an Open Access environment subject to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike licence <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/>. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use.

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Fig. 4. — The effect of reduced infected immigration on the burden of CRS in a stochastic situation. Stochastic simulations showing bi-weekly rubella incidence in the presence of some immigration of infected individuals [(a) left panel, on average three infected immigrants per year] or reduced immigration of infected individuals [(a) right panel, on average 0·3 infected immigrants per year]. Panel (b) shows the numbers of CRS cases/1000 live births [medians (inner horizontal bar), 25% and 75% quantiles (box) and 0·975 and 0·025 quantiles (outer lines) across 10 simulations], and corresponding levels in the deterministic situation (red asterisks). All simulations had a birth rate of 12/1000 and R₀ = 6 (set since the effect is expected to be strongest in communities with low transmission and/or birth rate) and population size of 50 000; burdens were assessed across 40 years.