Table 3.
Example of series effect on health outcome modeling
| |
Series |
Child mortality (5q0) |
First-differences |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adult mortality, female (45q15) | Adult mortality, male (45q15) | |||
| Original series |
IMF ID |
-0.480 (-0.495, -0.464) |
-0.286 (-0.299, -0.273) |
-0.278 (-0.289, -0.266) |
| |
Penn ID |
-0.389 (-0.402, -0.377) |
-0.252 (-0.262, -0.242) |
-0.235 (-0.244, -0.226) |
| |
WB ID |
-0.490 (-0.505, -0.474) |
-0.288 (-0.301, -0.276) |
-0.273 (-0.285, -0.261) |
| |
WB USD |
-0.331 (-0.342, -0.321) |
-0.200 (-0.208, -0.192) |
-0.185 (-0.193, -0.178) |
| |
IMF USD |
-0.378 (-0.390, -0.367) |
-0.215 (-0.225, -0.205) |
-0.214 (-0.223, -0.205) |
| |
UNSTAT USD |
-0.306 (-0.315, -0.297) |
-0.185 (-0.193, -0.178) |
-0.173 (-0.180, -0.166) |
| Completed series |
IMF ID |
-0.390 (-0.402, -0.378) |
-0.244 (-0.253, -0.235) |
-0.227 (-0.235, -0.219) |
| |
Penn ID |
-0.371 (-0.383, -0.359) |
-0.239 (-0.248, -0.231) |
-0.224 (-0.232, -0.216) |
| |
WB ID |
-0.377 (-0.389, -0.365) |
-0.239 (-0.248, -0.230) |
-0.222 (-0.230, -0.214) |
| |
WB USD |
-0.324 (-0.333, -0.315) |
-0.188 (-0.195, -0.181) |
-0.178 (-0.185, -0.172) |
| |
IMF USD |
-0.324 (-0.333, -0.315) |
-0.189 (-0.196, -0.182) |
-0.179 (-0.186, -0.173) |
| |
UNSTAT USD |
-0.320 (-0.330, -0.311) |
-0.185 (-0.192, -0.178) |
-0.175 (-0.182, -0.169) |
| |
IHME ID |
-0.386 (-0.398, -0.374) |
-0.245 (-0.254, -0.236) |
-0.229 (-0.237, -0.221) |
| |
IHME USD |
-0.324 (-0.334, -0.315) |
-0.189 (-0.196, -0.182) |
-0.179 (-0.185, -0.172) |
| |
Series |
Child mortality (5q0) |
Beck and Katz |
|
| |
|
|
Adult mortality, female (45q15) |
Adult mortality, male (45q15) |
| Original series |
IMF ID |
-0.507 (-0.524, -0.491) |
-0.307 (-0.321, -0.293) |
-0.287 (-0.300, -0.274) |
| |
Penn ID |
-0.399 (-0.413, -0.386) |
-0.272 (-0.283, -0.262) |
-0.244 (-0.254, -0.234) |
| |
WB ID |
-0.509 (-0.526, -0.492) |
-0.303 (-0.316, -0.289) |
-0.282 (-0.295, -0.269) |
| |
WB USD |
-0.347 (-0.358, -0.336) |
-0.213 (-0.222, -0.204) |
-0.194 (-0.203, -0.186) |
| |
IMF USD |
-0.403 (-0.416, -0.391) |
-0.233 (-0.244, -0.222) |
-0.223 (-0.233, -0.213) |
| |
UNSTAT USD |
-0.326 (-0.336, -0.315) |
-0.201 (-0.209, -0.192) |
-0.183 (-0.191, -0.176) |
| Completed series |
IMF ID |
-0.412 (-0.426, -0.399) |
-0.262 (-0.272, -0.252) |
-0.239 (-0.249, -0.230) |
| |
Penn ID |
-0.390 (-0.403, -0.377) |
-0.260 (-0.269, -0.250) |
-0.238 (-0.247, -0.229) |
| |
WB ID |
-0.397 (-0.411, -0.384) |
-0.256 (-0.265, -0.246) |
-0.234 (-0.243, -0.225) |
| |
WB USD |
-0.344 (-0.354, -0.333) |
-0.202 (-0.210, -0.194) |
-0.189 (-0.196, -0.181) |
| |
IMF USD |
-0.344 (-0.354, -0.334) |
-0.204 (-0.212, -0.196) |
-0.190 (-0.197, -0.183) |
| |
UNSTAT USD |
-0.338 (-0.349, -0.328) |
-0.199 (-0.206, -0.191) |
-0.185 (-0.192, -0.177) |
| |
IHME ID |
-0.408 (-0.421, -0.395) |
-0.264 (-0.274, -0.255) |
-0.242 (-0.251, -0.233) |
| IHME USD | -0.344 (-0.354, -0.334) | -0.203 (-0.211, -0.195) | -0.189 (-0.196, -0.182) | |
We modeled under-5 mortality, adult female mortality, and adult male mortality from 1970 to 2010 as a function of log income from each of the different series, both in their original forms and completed forms. The Beck and Katz model includes a one-year lag of the outcome variable as a predictor variable. Both models control for female educational attainment and a three-year lag on HIV seroprevalence.