Figure 4. Locality analysis overview II.

Predicted climate change outcomes for indigenous Arabica localities (349 in total) for the year intervals 2000, 2020, 2050 and 2080. Histograms for actual predicted values, under each scenario. Dashed line and red text indicate thresholds (68%, 95%, 100%, of the 2000 models). This figure provides finer-scale detail than Figure 3, including the subtle shifts around the thresholds that are evident in the locality analysis. For example in scenario B2A, in 2000 there are a high proportion of localities in optimum bioclimatic space (0.6 and 0.65), but by 2080 most of the localities are outside of all suitable bioclimatic space, with a small number of localities (‘core localites’) still occupying optimal bioclimatic space.