Table 2.
Consensus and compromise (divergence)
| Statements of greatest consensus or divergence | A: determined humanists | B: benevolent pragmatists | C: cynical protectionists | D: critical realists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drivers | ||||
| Consensus Environmental change as an agent of population displacement is questionable; economic factors can themselves explain most of displacement [10] | Strong disagreement | Slight disagreement | Moderate disagreement | Slight disagreement |
| Divergence Our understanding of the nature and significance of the complex linkages between migration and environmental or climatic change remains very limited [2] | Neutral | Strong agreement | Moderate disagreement | Extreme agreement |
| Terminology | ||||
| Consensus Even if the term “environmental refugee” is legally inaccurate, it is more compelling than the term “environmental migrant” because it evokes a sense of global responsibility and accountability, as well as a sense of urgency for impending disasters [21] | Neutral | Moderate disagreement | Slight disagreement | Neutral |
| Divergence “Environmental refugees” is a valid term for those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardized their existence and/or seriously affected their quality of life [18] | Slight agreement | Strong disagreement | Strong agreement | Slight agreement |
| Political elements | ||||
| Consensus The most vulnerable within the environment–mobility nexus are those unable to migrate—the forgotten poor obliged to remain behind despite harshly deteriorating conditions and precarious livelihoods [30] | Extreme agreement | Moderate agreement | Slight agreement | Strong agreement |
| Divergence Primary security threats to western nations related to climate change arise from the potential demand for humanitarian aid and a likely increase in immigration from neighbor states [28] | Moderate disagreement | Extreme disagreement | Extreme agreement | Extreme disagreement |
| Quantification | ||||
| Consensus The likelihood is very strong that a more solid understanding of both past and predicted volumes of environmental migrants (the real scale of the phenomenon) will influence policy [16] | Slight agreement | Slight agreement | Strong agreement | Slight agreement |
| Divergence Without a firm (and unlikely) definition of who is an ‘environmental refugee’, it is not easy to say that this category of people is increasing [13] | Slight disagreement | Moderate agreement | Moderate agreement | Strong agreement |