Table 4.
The simulated impact of temperature increases on the rate of development and yield of maize in Kenya and peanut in Zimbabwe based on 45 and 50 years, respectively, of daily climatic data (from Cooper et al. 2009)
| Climate scenario | Mean seasonal temperature (°C) | Time to maturity (days) | % Reduction from current | Crop yield (t ha−1) | % Reduction from current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maize | |||||
| Current | 23.3 | 87 | – | 3.21 | – |
| Current + 1 °C | 24.3 | 82 | 5.7 | 3.08 | 4.1 |
| Current + 2 °C | 25.3 | 77 | 11.4 | 2.92 | 9.0 |
| Current + 3 °C | 26.3 | 73 | 16.1 | 2.76 | 14.2 18.8 |
| Current + 4 °C | 27.3 | 70 | 19.5 | 2.59 | |
| Current + 5 °C | 28.3 | 67 | 22.9 | 2.41 | 25.1 |
| Peanut | |||||
| Current | 21.8 | 119 | – | 1.43 | – |
| Current + 1 °C | 22.8 | 110 | 7.5 | 1.24 | 13.2 |
| Current + 2 °C | 23.8 | 104 | 12.6 | 1.08 | 24.4 |
| Current + 3 °C | 24.8 | 100 | 16.0 | 9.50 | 33.3 |
| Current + 4 °C | 5.82 | 98 | 17.6 | 8.71 | 38.9 |
| Current + 5 °C | 26.8 | 98 | 17.6 | 8.22 | 42.3 |