Table A1.

List of species included in this study and summary of the main results for each species. Migration distances come from Poole (2008). The observed phenological change is the slope of first capture date regressed against year, including only locally breeding adults (days year⁻¹). The number of individuals is the number of adult birds for which estimates of temperature-induced plasticity were available. Estimated plasticity is the change in arrival time of individual birds for each 1°C change in mean temperature over the time interval specified, estimated from separate analyses of each species. Annual adult survival estimates are from Martin and Li (1992) indicated with ^A, or from the MAPS database indicated with ^M (http://www.birdpop.org/nbii/nbiihome.asp). Generation time is 1 + (s/(1−s), where s is annual survival (Lande et al. 2003; Stochastic population dynamics in ecology and conservation). Haldanes is the change in phenology not explained by plasticity induced by regional temperature change (SD units·generation⁻¹). Directional selection differentials necessary to produce the observed microevolutionary response were calculated under two assumptions about heritability (h² = 0.19, h² = 0.54) (Møller 2001; Sheldon et al. 2003)

				Estimated plasticity
Species		Migr. distance	Observed phenol. change	No. indiv.	Interval	Days °C−1	Survival	Generation time	Haldanes	Selection differentials
Ruby-throated Hummingbird	Archilochus colubris	Long	-0.083	41	6 Mar–25 Apr	−3.38	.	.	.	.
Eastern Phoebe	Sayornis phoebe	Short	-6.71	16	20 Jan–19 Feb	−0.014	.	.	.	.
White-eyed Vireo	Vireo griseus	Short	-1.41	22	15 Jan–4 Feb	0.007	0.492M	1.97	0.007	0.037, 0.013
Red-eyed	Vireo olivaceus	Long	1.16	189	21 Mar–10 Apr	0.022	0.553A	2.24	0.008	0.042, 0.015
Tree Swallow	Tachycineta bicolor	Short	5.05	20	4 Feb–6 Mar	−0.878	0.386M	1.63	-0.172	-0.905, -0.319
House Wren	Troglodytes aedon	Short	2.51	30	11 Mar–31 Mar	−0.074	0.286A	1.40	-0.007	-0.037, -0.013
Eastern Bluebird	Sialia sialis	Short	-6.41	18	20 Jan–9 Feb	−0.512	0.490A	1.96	-0.071	-0.374, -0.131
Wood Thrush	Hylocichla mustelina	Long	-6.88	30	4 Feb–5 Apr	−0.011	0.628A	2.69	-0.001	-0.005, -0.002
American Robin	Turdus migratorius	Short	-3.99	68	1 Mar–20 Apr	−0.168	0.600A	2.50	-0.019	-0.100, -0.035
Gray Catbird	Dumetella carolinensis	Long	1.58	149	6 Mar–26 Mar	−0.119	0.577A	2.36	-0.027	-0.142, -0.050
Golden-winged Warbler	Vermivora chrysoptera	Long	-1.43	45	20 Apr–10 May	−0.142	.	.	.	.
Yellow Warbler	Dendroica petechia	Long	0.570	101	9 Feb–1 Mar	0.013	0.512A	2.05	0.004	0.021, 0.007
American Redstart	Setophaga ruticilla	Long	3.66	37	20 Jan–9 Feb	0.140	0.670A	3.03	0.042	0.221, 0.078
Ovenbird	Seiurus aurocapilla	Long	-5.83	15	16 Mar–25 Apr	−0.044	0.638A	2.76	-0.010	-0.053, -0.019
Louisiana Waterthrush	Seiurus motacilla	Long	-7.36	49	16 Mar–5 Apr	−0.056	0.364M	1.57	-0.006	-0.032, -0.011
Common Yellowthroat	Geothlypis trichas	Long	-2.75	166	5 Apr–25 May	−0.148	0.542A	2.18	-0.033	-0.174, -0.061
Hooded Warbler	Wilsonia citrina	Long	5.37	15	16 Mar–15 Apr	−0.123	0.438M	1.78	-0.021	-0.111, -0.039
Yellow-breasted Chat	Icteria virens	Long	0.109	26	20 Apr–20 May	−2.55	0.373M	1.59	0.031	0.163, 0.057
Eastern Towhee	Pipilo erythrophthalmus	Short	-0.138	45	5 Apr–25 Apr	2.57	0.556A	2.25	-0.020	-0.105, -0.037
Chipping Sparrow	Spizella passerina	Short	-0.126	151	21 Mar–20 Apr	−0.96	0.480M	1.92	-0.018	-0.095, -0.033
Field Sparrow	Spizella pusilla	Short	0.115	132	11 Mar–10 Apr	−2.26	0.460A	1.85	0.019	0.010, 0.035
Song Sparrow	Melospiza melodia	Short	0.061	123	24 Feb–5 Apr	−2.21	0.556A	2.25	0.008	0.042, 0.015
Indigo Bunting	Passerina cyanea	Long	-0.135	137	15 Apr–5 May	−1.32	0.476A	1.91	-0.032	-0.168, -0.059
Red-winged Blackbird	Agelaius phoeniceus	Short	-0.449	86	19 Feb–11 Mar	−2.54	0.530A	2.13	-0.059	-0.311, -0.109
Brown-headed Cowbird	Molothrus ater	Short	-0.093	688	6 Mar–25 May	−3.06	0.451M	1.82	-0.010	-0.053, -0.019
Baltimore Oriole	Icterus galbula	Long	0.015	20	4 Feb–24 Feb	−2.38	0.464M	1.87	0.007	0.037, 0.013
Purple Finch	Carpodacus purpureus	Short	0.045	22	19 Feb–11 Mar	−5.03	0.426M	1.74	0.008	0.042, 0.015