Table 1.

Annual probabilities of cardiovascular events

Endpoint	Losartan	Candesartan
Heart failure	0.0064	0.0055
Cardiac arrhythmia	0.0090	0.0078
Peripheral arterial disease	0.0026	0.0023
Chronic ischemic heart disease	0.0090	0.0078
Myocardial infarction	0.0063	0.0054
Stroke	0.0073	0.0063
Cardiovascular mortality	0.0034	0.0029

Notes: Probabilities were derived as follows: an annual rate of 0.045 (Kjeldsen et al⁷) with a gamma distribution, gamma (100, 0.0005), defines the risk of a composite endpoint in the losartan group. A hazards ratio of 0.86 (Kjeldsen et al⁷) with a log normal distribution (mean −0.151, standard error 0.056) was applied to the losartan risk to define the risk of a composite endpoint in the candesartan group. A conditional probability was applied determining whether the composite endpoint was heart failure, cardiac arrhythmia, peripheral arterial disease, chronic ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular mortality using a Dirichlet distribution (365, 373, 108, 374, 261, 303, 141).