Table 4. Vaccination scenario results summary.

		Vaccination Campaign Start Time
Distribution Strategy	# Areas Vacc.	Day 20		Day 60		Day 80		Day 100
		Cases	%	Cases	%	Cases	%	Cases	%
Attack Rate	1 area	4228	0.56	2342	0.30	970	0.12	345	0.04
		2263,6424	0.30,0.85	1195,3392	0.16,0.41	197,1732	0.03,0.21	−186,887	−0.02,0.10
	2 areas	3954	0.53	2266	0.29	986	0.13	379	0.05
		2142,6214	0.29,0.82	1156,3258	0.16,0.40	238,1732	0.03,0.21	−146,928	−0.02,0.11
	3 areas	3422	0.46	2025	0.26	975	0.12	433	0.05
		1903,5174	0.27,0.69	1021,2993	0.14,0.36	222,1708	0.03,0.20	−71,964	−0.01,0.11
Population	1 area	1804	0.24	1272	0.16	777	0.10	359	0.04
		558,3250	0.08,0.41	254,2276	0.03,0.28	27,1565	0,0.19	−166,897	−0.02,0.10
	2 areas	1974	0.26	1405	0.18	859	0.11	396	0.05
		824,3355	0.12,0.42	432,2361	0.06,0.29	102,1633	0.01,0.19	−120,936	−0.02,0.11
	3 areas	3019	0.40	1928	0.25	996	0.13	414	0.05
		1727,4534	0.24,0.59	976,2902	0.13,0.35	269,1739	0.04,0.21	−92,941	−0.01,0.11
Connectivity	1 area	666	0.09	476	0.06	322	0.04	181	0.02
		−363,1742	−0.05,0.22	−404,1372	−0.05,0.17	−436,1102	−0.06,0.13	−349,716	−0.04,0.08
	2 areas	1258	0.17	827	0.11	566	0.07	326	0.04
		154,2375	0.02,0.3	−62,1741	−0.01,0.21	−129,1322	−0.02,0.16	−198,863	−0.03,0.10
	3 areas	1792	0.24	1255	0.16	828	0.10	427	0.05
		603,3032	0.09,0.39	339,2243	0.05,0.27	104,1574	0.01,0.19	−74,967	−0.01,0.11
Diffuse/City-Wide	14 areas	2271	0.30	1521	0.20	872	0.11	421	0.05
		1170,3450	0.17,0.44	658,2464	0.09,0.30	150,1623	0.02,0.19	−71,947	−0.01,0.11

Median count and percent of cases averted by targeting strategy (indicated by left-most column) and vaccination start day (epidemic day) for 75,000 doses (37,500 vaccinees). Values were estimated from simulations starting from the first time period where any vaccinee gained protective immunity. 95% predictive intervals (PIs) are shown below each median value. Differences were calculated from time that the first vaccinated individuals are protected.