Table 4. Vaccination scenario results summary.
Vaccination Campaign Start Time | |||||||||
Distribution Strategy | # Areas Vacc. | Day 20 | Day 60 | Day 80 | Day 100 | ||||
Cases | % | Cases | % | Cases | % | Cases | % | ||
Attack Rate | 1 area | 4228 | 0.56 | 2342 | 0.30 | 970 | 0.12 | 345 | 0.04 |
2263,6424 | 0.30,0.85 | 1195,3392 | 0.16,0.41 | 197,1732 | 0.03,0.21 | −186,887 | −0.02,0.10 | ||
2 areas | 3954 | 0.53 | 2266 | 0.29 | 986 | 0.13 | 379 | 0.05 | |
2142,6214 | 0.29,0.82 | 1156,3258 | 0.16,0.40 | 238,1732 | 0.03,0.21 | −146,928 | −0.02,0.11 | ||
3 areas | 3422 | 0.46 | 2025 | 0.26 | 975 | 0.12 | 433 | 0.05 | |
1903,5174 | 0.27,0.69 | 1021,2993 | 0.14,0.36 | 222,1708 | 0.03,0.20 | −71,964 | −0.01,0.11 | ||
Population | 1 area | 1804 | 0.24 | 1272 | 0.16 | 777 | 0.10 | 359 | 0.04 |
558,3250 | 0.08,0.41 | 254,2276 | 0.03,0.28 | 27,1565 | 0,0.19 | −166,897 | −0.02,0.10 | ||
2 areas | 1974 | 0.26 | 1405 | 0.18 | 859 | 0.11 | 396 | 0.05 | |
824,3355 | 0.12,0.42 | 432,2361 | 0.06,0.29 | 102,1633 | 0.01,0.19 | −120,936 | −0.02,0.11 | ||
3 areas | 3019 | 0.40 | 1928 | 0.25 | 996 | 0.13 | 414 | 0.05 | |
1727,4534 | 0.24,0.59 | 976,2902 | 0.13,0.35 | 269,1739 | 0.04,0.21 | −92,941 | −0.01,0.11 | ||
Connectivity | 1 area | 666 | 0.09 | 476 | 0.06 | 322 | 0.04 | 181 | 0.02 |
−363,1742 | −0.05,0.22 | −404,1372 | −0.05,0.17 | −436,1102 | −0.06,0.13 | −349,716 | −0.04,0.08 | ||
2 areas | 1258 | 0.17 | 827 | 0.11 | 566 | 0.07 | 326 | 0.04 | |
154,2375 | 0.02,0.3 | −62,1741 | −0.01,0.21 | −129,1322 | −0.02,0.16 | −198,863 | −0.03,0.10 | ||
3 areas | 1792 | 0.24 | 1255 | 0.16 | 828 | 0.10 | 427 | 0.05 | |
603,3032 | 0.09,0.39 | 339,2243 | 0.05,0.27 | 104,1574 | 0.01,0.19 | −74,967 | −0.01,0.11 | ||
Diffuse/City-Wide | 14 areas | 2271 | 0.30 | 1521 | 0.20 | 872 | 0.11 | 421 | 0.05 |
1170,3450 | 0.17,0.44 | 658,2464 | 0.09,0.30 | 150,1623 | 0.02,0.19 | −71,947 | −0.01,0.11 |
Median count and percent of cases averted by targeting strategy (indicated by left-most column) and vaccination start day (epidemic day) for 75,000 doses (37,500 vaccinees). Values were estimated from simulations starting from the first time period where any vaccinee gained protective immunity. 95% predictive intervals (PIs) are shown below each median value. Differences were calculated from time that the first vaccinated individuals are protected.