Table 4.

Variance parameters and PEB specific weights to obtain personalized thresholds by controlling for natural history. V represents the population-wide residual variance of the marker. Bn represents the intra-class correlation (ICC) of the subject’s mean screening history. The ‘Reduction’ statistic represents the reduction in the size of the deviation from the woman’s expected marker value required to achieve a positive test result compared to a single threshold rule.

Marker	Age Group	V	Statistic	Length of screening history (n)
				0	1	2	3	4	5	6
CA 125	< 45	0.31	Bn	0	0.776	0.874	0.912	0.933	0.945	0.954
			Reduction	0	37%	43%	46%	47%	48%	49%
	45 – 54	0.32	Bn	0	0.709	0.83	0.88	0.907	0.924	0.936
			Reduction	0	30%	36%	39%	40%	41%	42%
	≥ 55	0.22	Bn	0	0.785	0.88	0.917	0.936	0.948	0.956
			Reduction	0	38%	44%	47%	49%	49%	50%
HE4	All ages	0.09	Bn	0	0.572	0.728	0.8	0.843	0.87	0.889
			Reduction	0	18%	24%	26%	28%	29%	30%