. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2013 Jan 1.

Published in final edited form as: Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2011 Oct 1;10(1):46–51. doi: 10.1016/j.cgh.2011.09.017

Table 1.

Model Input Estimates (Base Case) for Event Probabilities

Event	Monotherapy	Combination therapy	Source
Remission	0.38	0.47	SONIC week 50^a^,4
Response^b	0.036	0.030	SONIC week 50^a^,4
SAE^c	0.24	0.15	SONIC week 54⁴
Serious infection^d	0.049	0.039	SONIC week 54⁴
Lymphoma^d	0.0004	0.0006	Kandiel et al,⁷ 2005; Siegel et al,⁵ 2009
Surgery for flare	0.10	0.10	Lewis et al,¹⁰ 2000
Die of lymphoma (1 y)	0.22	0.22	SEER¹⁴
Die of serious infection	0.05	0.05	Siegel et al,^e^,8 2006
Die of surgery	0.0008	0.0008	Lewis et al,¹⁰ 2000; Gregor et al,⁹ 1997
Die of Crohn’s disease	0.0018	0.0018	Lewis et al,¹³ 2008
Die all-cause mortality	0.0012	0.0012	US Life Table¹²

SONIC week 50 for all randomized patients, assuming that patients who did not enter trial extension did not achieve the end point through week 50.

Crohn’s disease activity index of 100 points drop.

SAE is an event other than serious infection.

Ranges for uniform sampling distributions used in probabilistic sensitivity analyses for outcomes of interest were serious infection with monotherapy, 0.03–0.07; serious infection with combination therapy, 0.02–0.06; lymphoma with monotherapy, 0.0001–0.0007; lymphoma with combination therapy, 0.0002–0.001.

Derived from Siegel et al, 2005 analysis.