Table 3.
Logistic regression estimates predicting first international migration following violent and political events
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conflict Events | |||||
| Gun battles | 1.67** | 1.64* | |||
| (no. per month) | (2.50) | (2.29) | |||
| Political events | 0.51† | 0.53† | |||
| (no. per month) | (1.58) | (1.50) | |||
| Ceasefires | 1.20 | 0.93 | |||
| (0.46) | (0.18) | ||||
| Controls: Individual Characteristics | |||||
| Age | 0.92*** | 0.95*** | 0.92*** | 0.95*** | 0.95*** |
| (4.63) | (4.15) | (4.31) | (4.68) | (4.40) | |
| Gender (female) | 0.17*** | 0.20*** | 0.17*** | 0.20*** | 0.20*** |
| (7.26) | (7.09) | (6.77) | (7.33) | (6.92) | |
| Educational attainment | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| (0.12) | (0.11) | (0.13) | (0.12) | (0.13) | |
| School enrollment | 1.02 | 1.06 | 1.02 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| (0.46) | (0.44) | (0.43) | (0.46) | (0.44) | |
| Nonfamily work | 1.01 | 0.93 | 1.01 | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| (0.44) | (0.45) | (0.42) | (0.44) | (0.45) | |
| Land ownership | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| (0.85) | (0.88) | (0.89) | (0.84) | (0.95) | |
| Distance to Narayanghat | 1.03† | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03† | 1.03 |
| (1.30) | (1.27) | (1.24) | (1.31) | (1.27) | |
| Ever migrated before 1996 | 2.23*** | 2.26*** | 2.22*** | 2.27*** | 2.26*** |
| (4.57) | (4.44) | (4.25) | (4.62) | (4.34) | |
| Marital Statusa Never married |
0.68 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| (0.55) | (0.48) | (0.51) | (0.55) | (0.47) | |
| Married, not living with spouse |
0.93 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| (0.05) | (0.07) | (0.04) | (0.05) | (0.06) | |
|
Divorced or widowed |
1.18 | 0.85 | 1.17 | 0.89 | 0.86 |
| (0.18) | (0.24) | (0.17) | (0.19) | (0.23) | |
| Ethnicityb Dalit |
1.13 | 1.21 | 1.12 | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| (0.73) | (0.72) | (0.66) | (0.74) | (0.69) | |
| Hill indigenous | 1.28 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.30 | 1.29 |
| (1.21) | (1.19) | (1.11) | (1.23) | (1.15) | |
| Terai indigenous | 0.52** | 0.49** | 0.52** | 0.49** | 0.49** |
| (2.58) | (2.51) | (2.40) | (2.60) | (2.46) | |
| Newar | 0.43* | 0.45† | 0.43† | 0.45† | 0.45† |
| (1.58) | (1.55) | (1.48) | (1.60) | (1.52) | |
| Year | 0.43*** | 0.50*** | 0.43*** | 0.47*** | 0.52*** |
| (6.10) | (5.18) | (5.42) | (6.17) | (4.85) | |
| Year Squared | 0.43* | 1.03 | 0.43* | 1.04* | 1.03† |
| (2.29) | (1.19) | (2.24) | (2.30) | (1.32) | |
| Deviance | 4,267 | 4,257 | 4,261 | 4,267 | 4,252 |
| No. of Observations (person- months) |
377,005 | 377,005 | 377,005 | 377,005 | 273,719 |
Notes: Estimates are presented as odds ratios. Z statistics are given in parentheses. Months of the year included in all models, but results not shown here.
a
Reference category is married and living with spouse.
b
Reference category is Brahmin-Chhetri.
†
p< .10
*
p < .05
**
p <. 01
***
p <; .001 (two-tailed tests for ceasefires; one-tailed tests for all other measures)