Table 3.
Assumptions for the driver parameters for the four policy scenario
| Component | Driver | 2005 | Assumptions | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSE | EME | LSE | CME | |||
| Fertility | TFR | 1.5 | +0.4 | +0.2 | ±0 | −0.2 |
| Mortality | ||||||
| Males | % Decline in | −2.8 | −3.8 | −3.3 | −2.3 | −1.8 |
| Females | ASMRs | −2.6 | −3.6 | −3.1 | −2.1 | −1.6 |
| Extra-Europe | ||||||
| Immigration | Levels | 2.3 M | 3.5 M | 4.5 M | 1.5 M | 2.5 M |
| Emigration | Rates | Moderate | High | Low | Moderate | |
| Levels | 1.3 M | 1.6 M | 2.1 M | 0.6 M | 1.5 M | |
| Intra-Europe | ||||||
| In-migration | Levels | 1.7 M | 2.1 M | 2.6 M | 1.1 M | 1.4 M |
| Out-migration | Rates | Moderate | High | Low | Moderate | |
| Internal migration | ||||||
| In-migration | Levels | 6.6 M | 7.2 M | 7.6 M | 6.0 M | 6.0 M |
| Out-migration | DAR range adjustment | 75 % | 125 % | 85 % | 115 % | |
| Male labor force participation (%) | Age 15–24 | 47 | 50 | 52 | 46 | 47 |
| Age 25–49 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 89 | 91 | |
| Age 50–64 | 63 | 69 | 70 | 64 | 66 | |
| Female labor force participation (%) | Age 15–24 | 40 | 44 | 46 | 39 | 41 |
| Age 25–49 | 76 | 83 | 82 | 73 | 77 | |
| Age 50–64 | 45 | 48 | 48 | 42 | 44 | |
| Regional disparities | Strong convergence | Strong divergence | Moderate convergence | Moderate divergence | ||
TFR total fertility rate (value in table: average TFR 2000–2007 for EU27), ASMR age-specific mortality rate, DAR destination attractiveness ratio = share of migration inflow/share of population, extra-Europe level total number of immigrations assumed, other migration totals levels are a product of the multiplication of out-migration rates by origin region populations, labor force participation rates average over 5-year age groups