Table 1.

Key model variables, parameters, and climatic variables

Quantity	Definition
ni(t)	The number of An. gambiae s.s. in stage i on day t (where i = 1, 2, 3, and 4 corresponds to eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults respectively)
pi	The daily survival probability of stage i
di	The average duration spent in stage i (days)
Vt	The volume of the breeding site on day t (ml)
Et	Evaporation from the breeding site on day t (mm)
D	The number of consecutive days without water in the breeding site (days)
TA	Daily mean air temperature (°C)
TW	Daily mean water temperature in the breeding site (°C)
Rt	Total rainfall on day t (mm)
TDP	Dew-point temperature (°C)
RH	Relative humidity (%) (can be calculated from knowledge of TA and TDP)
CF	Cloud fraction
Tmin	Minimum daily temperature (°C)
Tmax	Maximum daily temperature (°C)
U2	Wind speed at 2 m (ms-1)