Table 2.

Comparison of five biogeographic models for wandering whistling-duck Dendrocygna arcuata (Horsfield, 1824). Ln Bayes factor was calculated as the difference of the logarithms of the marginal likelihood of model III and all other models (Kass and Raftery 1995). For details see Methods. CYP is the combined location of Aurukun A and Aurukun B

Model	Description	Ln mL	Ln Bayes factor (Model III vs. Model I)	Model probability
I	PNG, Aurukun A, Aurukun B, NWA, TIM are all connected	−3113.78	1721.82	0.0000
II	PNG, CYP, NWA, TIM are all connected	−2761.69	1369.73	0.0000
III	PNG is the source Aurukun A, Aurukun B, NWA, and TIM are sinks	−1391.96	0.00	1.0000
IV	PNG is the source, CYP, NWA, and TIM are sinks	−1466.63	74.67	0.0000
V	PNG, Aurukun A, Aurukun B, NWA, and TIM are members of the same panmictic population	−2381.30	989.34	0.0000

CYP, Cape York Peninsula (Aurukun); NWA, Northwest Western Australia (Broome); PNG, Papua New Guinea (Lake Murray); TIM, Timor Leste; Ln mL, log marginal likelihood.