Table 3.
Predicted probabilities for the presence of histologically-aggressive prostate cancer on first prostate biopsy based on the EDRN analysis cohort, for a range of demographic and pre-biopsy clinical factors. The values are presented as percentages with 95% CI.
| Normal DRE | Abnormal DRE | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | Family History of Prostate Cancer |
BMI (kg/m2) |
PSA Density (ng/mL/cc) | PSA Density (ng/mL/cc) | ||||
| 0.066 | 0.102 | 0.157 | 0.066 | 0.102 | 0.157 | |||
| 55 years | No | 25 | 5.6 (3.6, 8.6) |
10.3 (7.2, 14.6) |
18.0 (13.1, 24.3) |
15.0 (9.2, 23.3) |
25.3 (16.9, 36.1) |
39.3 (27.9, 52.0) |
| 30 | 7.5 (5.1, 11.0) |
13.6 (9.9, 18.3) |
23.1 (17.5, 29.8) |
19.4 (12.4, 29.0) |
31.7 (21.9, 43.3) |
47.0 (34.7, 59.7) |
||
| Yes | 25 | 11.9 (7.8, 17.7) |
20.7 (14.6, 28.4) |
33.3 (24.6, 43.2) |
28.5 (18.3, 41.5) |
43.5 (30.6, 57.3) |
59.5 (45.3, 72.3) |
|
| 30 | 15.6 (10.9, 21.9) |
26.3 (19.6, 34.2) |
40.6 (31.5, 50.3) |
35.3 (23.8, 48.8) |
51.3 (37.8, 64.6) |
66.8 (53.1, 78.2) |
||
| 60 years | No | 25 | 7.2 (4.9, 10.6) |
13.1 (9.7, 17.5) |
22.4 (17.3, 28.4) |
18.7 (12.3, 27.6) |
30.8 (21.8, 41.4) |
45.9 (34.7, 57.6) |
| 30 | 9.7 (6.9, 13.3) |
17.1 (13.3, 21.7) |
28.3 (22.7, 34.6) |
24.0 (16.2, 33.9) |
37.8 (22.7, 49.0) |
53.8 (42.0, 65.2) |
||
| Yes | 25 | 15.1 (10.2, 21.7) |
25.4 (18.6, 33.8) |
39.5 (30.3, 49.5) |
34.4 (23.1, 47.8) |
50.2 (37.0, 63.4) |
65.9 (52.4, 77.2) |
|
| 30 | 19.5 (14.0, 26.6) |
31.8 (24.5, 40.2) |
47.2 (37.9, 56.8) |
41.7 (29.3, 55.3) |
58.0 (44.6, 70.2) |
72.5 (60.0, 82.3) |
||
| 65 years | No | 25 | 9.3 (6.4, 13.2) |
16.5 (12.5, 21.4) |
27.4 (21.8, 33.9) |
23.2 (15.7, 32.9) |
36.8 (27.1, 47.7) |
52.7 (41.4, 63.7) |
| 30 | 12.3 (9.0, 16.6) |
21.3 (16.9, 26.4) |
34.1 (28.0, 40.7) |
29.3 (20.5, 39.9) |
44.3 (33.7, 55.5) |
60.4 (48.9, 70.8) |
||
| Yes | 25 | 18.9 (12.8, 26.9) |
30.9 (22.7, 40.5) |
46.1 (35.9, 56.7) |
40.7 (28.0, 54.7) |
56.9 (43.3, 69.6) |
71.7 (58.8, 81.7) |
|
| 30 | 24.1 (17.3, 32.7) |
38.0 (29.3, 47.5) |
54.0 (43.8, 63.9) |
48.4 (35.0, 62.1) |
64.4 (51.0, 75.8) |
77.6 (66.0, 86.1) |
||
Values of age are approximately the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of the distribution; values of BMI are approximately the 25th and 75th percentiles of the distribution. Values of PSA density are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of the distribution.
Abbreviations: BMI=body mass index; PSA=prostate specific antigen; DRE=digital rectal exam; CI=confidence interval