Table 3.

Models to Predict Transplant/Death in 29 Patients With Hepatitis A Enrolled in the Acute Liver Failure Study Group

Model	n	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV	AUROC
ALFSG index *
≥ 1 Factor	20	100%	56%	65%	100%	.781
≥ 2 Factors	14	92%	88%	86%	93%	.899
≥ 3 Factors	9	62%	94%	89%	75%	.766
4 Factors	1	8%	100%	100%	57%	.538
Other models
MELD ≥ 35	9	54%	88%	78%	70%	.707
King’s College	5	31%	94%	80%	62%	.623

Abbreviations: PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value.

^*ALFSG index includes 4 factors on day 1: creatinine ≥ 2.0 mg/dL, ALT ≤ 2600 IU/L, intubation status, and need for pressors.