Table 2.

Results for African Americans with calibrated CKD progression

	Age-Adjusted Prevalence						ESRD Lifetime Incidencea
	CKD	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage 4	Stage 5
Observed ratesb	0.147	0.033	0.040	0.062	0.005	—	86
Model predicted ratesc
Base model	0.143	0.027	0.035	0.072	0.007	0.002	39
African-American risk factors	0.182	0.048	0.051	0.072	0.008	0.003	52
African-American risk factors and GFR progression calibration	0.181	0.046	0.053	0.067	0.009	0.005	82

^aLifetime incidence of initiating ESRD care per 1000 persons.

^bObserved stage-specific CKD prevalence is based on the NHANES, 1999–2006. We did not report the estimated prevalence of stage 5 due to the limited sample size in NHANES. ESRD lifetime incidence is based on data from the USRDS.

^cStage-specific CKD prevalence and ESRD incidence are based on the simulation results from the base model with no race adjustments other than mortality, and with the African-American risk factors, and with the risk factors and calibrated GFR progression rates.