Table 4. Range of intervention impact, by outcomes measured in the wider community for epidemics with an HIV prevalence >5%, in the absence of risk compensation.
| HIV infections averted per 100,000 adults | Fraction of HIV infections averted | Relative changein HIV prevalence | Relative change in HIV incidence | |
| N studies | 3 [26], [36], [39] | 3 [22], [30], [39] | 5 [30], [33], [47], [48], [49] | 3 [26], [37], [46] |
| Epidemic phase | ||||
| Growth | – | 9 to 48%α | 19 to 75%↓αγ | 2 to 65%↓γ |
| Late | 10 to 14,617γ*# | 0.8 to 28.8%γ | 5 to 11%↓γ | 10 to 35%↓γ |
| Type of focused intervention (range of % efficacy, % coverage) | ||||
| Condom use (100, 20–100) | 10 to 14γ# | – | 27 to 75%↓γ | – |
| STI treatment (50–100,20) | 21 t o 44γ# | – | – | 14%↓γ |
| Condom use & STI treatment (50–100, 20–100) | 41 to 65γ# | 9 to 48%α | 19%↓α | 10 to 50%↓γ |
| Vaginal microbicide (45,75) | – | – | – | – |
| Oral PREP (50–90, 25–50) | 26 to 14,617γ*# | 0.8 to 28.8%γ | – | – |
| Oral PREP (50–90, 25–50), condom use (100,62.5) | 235 to 909γ* | – | – | – |
| Vaccine (78**, 100) | – | 5 to 18%γ | 5 to 11%↓γ | – |
| Anti-retroviral treatment (100,50) | – | – | 13%↓γ | – |
| Partner reduction° (N/A,100) | – | – | 8%↓γ | – |
| Structural intervention (sexual violence) (100,100) | – | – | – | 2 to 65%↓γ |
| Coverage of high-risk group | ||||
| <60% | 10 to 419γ*# | 0.8 to 30%αγ | 5 to 19%↓αγ | 13 to 14%↓γ |
| ≥60% | 251 to 14,617γ*# | 5 to 48%αγ | 8 to 75%↓γ | 2 to 65%↓γ |
| Intervention efficacy** | ||||
| <60% | 26 to 419γ*# | 0.8 to 6.8%γ | 5 to 11%↓γ | – |
| ≥60% | 10 to 14,617γ*# | 5 to 48%αγ | 8 to 75%↓αγ | 2 to 65%↓γ |
| Time-horizon (years) | ||||
| 1 | 10 to 65γ# | 9 to 30%α | – | 14%↓γ |
| 2–9 | 26 to 909γ* | – | 8%↓γ | 10 to 50%↓γ |
| 10 | 5,356 to 14,617γ# | 0.8 to 48%αγ | 5 to 75%↓αγ | – |
| >10 | 9 to 30%α | 13 to 27%↓γ | 2 to 65%↓γ | |
| High-risk group (HRG) | ||||
| FSWs | 10 to 564γ*# | 6.8 to 40%α | 13 to 27↓αγ | 2 to 14%↓γ |
| FSWs and clients | 159 to 909γ* | 9 to 48%α | – | 10 to 50%↓γ |
| FSWs, clients, and non-commercial HRG | 5,356 to 14,617γ# | 0.8 to 28%γ | – | – |
| Non-commercial HRG | – | – | 5 to 75%↓γ | 2 to 65%↓γ |
Population in which the outcome was measured includes: αlow-risk females; βgeneral population (excludes high-risk groups); γtotal population (includes high-risk groups); ωante-natal clinic attendees. °Reduce partnership rate per year (among clients 20 to 15; among FSWs 400 to 50). **Efficacy in reducing HIV susceptibility per sex act (or transmission probability if intervention effect on HIV susceptibility was not differentiated from intervention effect on HIV infectivity). Infections averted refer to the following: *per 100,000 uninfected adults per year of intervention (Vissers 2008 [36]); (#per 100,000 adults per year of intervention (Abbas 2008 [39] and Vickerman 2006 [26]_ENREF_43_ENREF_43). N = number of studies. STI (sexually transmitted infection). PREP (pre-exposure prophylaxis). ↓(decline). FSW (female sex worker). Non-commercial HRG refers to individuals who engage in multiple (non-commercial) partnerships.