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. 2012 Nov 30;7(11):e49650. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0049650

Figure 5. Spatiotemporal dynamics of the FMDV epidemic in Bulgarian 2011.

Figure 5

The simplest option was considered for the selection of the gamma-random-relaxed-walk (RRW) continuous diffusion model. The isolate from Israel was excluded from this analysis,. Satellite imagery: GoogleEarth. Date accessed: 25 May 2012. Co-ordinates: 40°57′25.89″N, 28°27′28.38″E (A); 42°04′27.07″N, 27°39′47.60″E (B) 42°09′01.30″N, 27°09′42.18″E (C). A. FMDV spread from the North-West of Turkey throughout Bursa (Anatolia, Turkey) to Brugas (Bulgaria). The uncertainity on the location the virus is represented by transparent polygons (80% HPD). Turkish Thrace might have been infected before November 2010, which is plausible with the serological results in wild boar. B. The transmission infection pathways between the wild boar, outbreaks 1, 2, 3 and the second wave of outbreaks is not clarified. It might be explained by un-sampled notified sites/outbreaks or by a reservoir in wildlife (i.e. wild boar), both hypotheses are compatible with a genetically and spatiotemporally close FMDV replicating within a host. C. The genetic spatiotemporal reconstruction of the second wave of outbreaks linked them to each other, in agreement with epidemiological data, i.e. owners from animals in outbreak 6 had animals in the location of outbreak 4.