Figure 2.

Results from Kenya, Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia, Nigeria and Tanzania: coloured dots are observed prevalence from different sites; the black line is the classic model trajectory; the blue solid line is the median trajectory of the proposed model; the dashed blue lines are the 95% credible intervals of the proposed model; and the red solid line is the data trend averaged over all clinics at each year. Note that the infection rate of the classic model is a constant and hence not shown in the figure.