TABLE 2—
Estimates of Percentage Changes in Alcoholic Beverage Sales After 1% Minimum Price Increase: Saskatchewan, Canada, April 2008–March 2012
| Variable by Alcohol Type (No. Brands Affected/Total No.) | On–Premise, % (95% CI) | Off–Premise, % (95% CI) | On–Premise and Off–Premise, % (95% CI) |
| Beer (37/415) | |||
| Minimum price | –0.889*** (–1.207, –0.571) | –1.387*** (–1.851, –0.922) | –1.056*** (–1.476, –0.635) |
| Mean $/L | 0.710* (0.162, 1.257) | 0.718 (−0.004, 1.440) | 0.639 (−0.018, 1.295) |
| Personal income | −0.153 (−0.348, 0.042) | 0.567*** (0.255, 0.879) | 0.135 (−0.126, 0.397) |
| Spirits (77/542) | |||
| Minimum price | –0.641* (–1.114, –0.168) | –0.589** (–0.943, –0.235) | –0.587** (–0.928, –0.246) |
| Mean $/L | 0.610 (−0.887, 2.108) | 0.055 (−0.336, 0.446) | 0.064 (−0.360, 0.488) |
| Personal income | −0.185 (−0.428, 0.058) | 0.267*** (0.123, 0.411) | 0.192* (0.052, 0.333) |
| Wine (79/1259) | |||
| Minimum price | −0.301 (−0.673, 0.071) | –0.511** (–0.841, –0.181) | –0.458** (–0.751, –0.165) |
| Mean $/L | 0.114 (−0.190, 0.418) | 0.038 (−0.102, 0.179) | 0.023 (−0.109, 0.155) |
| Personal income | −0.088 (−0.280, 0.104) | 0.361*** (0.193, 0.529) | 0.280*** (0.129, 0.431) |
| Coolers (14/108) | |||
| Changea | −0.057 (−0.146, 0.031) | –0.163*** (–0.245, –0.081) | –0.132** (–0.212, –0.052) |
| Mean $/L | −1.238** (−2.104, −0.371) | 0.084 (−0.359, 0.527) | −0.167 (−0.753, 0.420) |
| Personal income | −0.078 (−0.517, 0.361) | 0.075 (−0.340, 0.490) | 0.006 (−0.373, 0.384) |
| Cocktails (9/53) | |||
| Changea | −0.021 (−0.099, 0.057) | –0.287*** (–0.380, –0.194) | –0.213*** (–0.290, –0.137) |
| Mean $/L | −0.441 (−0.828, −0.054) | 0.134 (−0.302, 0.570) | 0.041 (−0.349, 0.431) |
| Personal income | 0.172 (−0.112, 0.457) | 1.130*** (0.742, 1.518) | 0.797*** (0.492, 1.103) |
| Liqueurs (0/165) | |||
| Changea | −0.024 (−0.073, 0.026) | –0.068* (–0.127 ,–0.008) | –0.053* (–0.102, –0.003) |
| Mean $/L | −0.001 (−0.618, 0.616) | 0.118 (−0.308, 0.544) | 0.084 (−0.257, 0.424) |
| Personal income | −0.477** (−0.820, −0.135) | 0.078*** (−0.290, 0.447) | −0.093 (−0.406, 0.220) |
| Total (216/2542) | |||
| Minimum price | –0.842*** (–1.151, –0.534) | –0.918*** (–1.255, –0.582) | –0.843*** (–1.164, –0.522) |
| Mean $/L | 0.907* (0.139, 1.676) | 0.121 (−0.322, 0.564 | 0.243 (−0.261, 0.747) |
| Personal income | −0.245* (−0.449, −0.041) | 0.438*** (0.246, 0.630) | 0.189 (0.003, 0.374) |
Note. CI = confidence interval. Mean dollar value of liquor sales per liter of ethanol and personal income estimated by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. For each elasticity estimate was adjusted simultaneously for effects of minimum price, mean dollars per standard drink, household income, other beverage consumption, trend (time 1, 2, … , 52 [continuous variable]), season (deseasonalized), and autoregressive or moving-average effects.
The percentage changes in cooler, cocktail, and liqueur consumption from before to after April 1, 2010 can be calculated by 100*coefficient of estimate in each case.
*P < .05 **P < .01 ***P < .001. P values determined by t-test.