Table 3. Multivariate analysis showing prognostic factors with significant and independent influence on mortality at three years following hospital admission with upper GI bleeding.
| Prognostic factor ‡ | Adjusted Odds ratio * | (95% CI) † | P-value ‡ | |
| Age group | <0.001 | |||
| <40 | 1.00 | Ref | ||
| 40–44 | 1.77 | (1.26, 2.48) | ||
| 45–49 | 2.39 | (1.76, 3.24) | ||
| 50–54 | 3.26 | (2.47, 4.31) | ||
| 55–59 | 3.94 | (2.99, 5.18) | ||
| 60–64 | 5.64 | (4.36, 7.30) | ||
| 65–69 | 7.01 | (5.50, 8.94) | ||
| 70–74 | 10.1 | (8.00, 12.7) | ||
| 75–79 | 14.5 | (11.6, 18.2) | ||
| 80–84 | 23.1 | (18.4, 29.0) | ||
| 85+ | 52.9 | (42.2, 66.4) | ||
| Sex | <0.001 | |||
| Women | 1.00 | Ref | ||
| Men | 1.25 | (1.15, 1.37) | ||
| Social deprivation | 0.001 | |||
| I (most affluent quintile) | 1.00 | Ref | ||
| II | 1.06 | (0.92, 1.23) | ||
| III | 1.05 | (0.92, 1.21) | ||
| IV | 1.14 | (0.99, 1.31) | ||
| V (most deprived quintile) | 1.29 | (1.12, 1.47) | ||
| Inpatient bleed | ||||
| No | 1.00 | Ref | ||
| Yes | 1.31 | (1.12, 1.54) | 0.001 | |
| Aetiology/main diagnoses | ||||
| All other & unspecified aetiologies | 1.00 | Ref | ||
| Mallory-Weiss tear | 0.54 | (0.43, 0.69) | <0.001 | |
| Varices – gastric | 2.80 | (1.12, 7.01) | 0.028 | |
| Malignancy – oesophageal | 48.0 | (14.3, 160) | <0.001 | |
| Malignancy – gastric/duodenal | 32.2 | (12.8, 80.8) | <0.001 | |
| Gastritis & duodenitis | 0.82 | (0.73, 0.92) | 0.001 | |
| Complications of analgesics, antipyretics & anti-inflammatory drugs (AAAs) | 0.69 | (0.54, 0.87) | 0.002 | |
| Major co-morbidities | ||||
| None | 1.00 | Ref | ||
| Circulatory diseases | 1.49 | (1.36, 1.62) | <0.001 | |
| Malignancies (all except upper GI) | 15.4 | (11.8, 20.1) | <0.001 | |
| Liver disease | 7.89 | (6.44, 9.68) | <0.001 | |
| COPD | 2.20 | (1.79, 2.71) | <0.001 | |
| Diabetes | 1.35 | (1.18, 1.55) | <0.001 | |
| Renal failure | 3.93 | (3.02, 5.12) | <0.001 | |
Notes
*
Odds ratios for sex are adjusted for age group, odds ratios for social deprivation, inpatient bleed, aetiology/main diagnoses, and major c-morbidities are adjusted for age group and sex
†
Ref = Reference category
‡
When applying the Bonferroni correction to adjust for the multiple comparisons (p = 0.0031), all terms in this model remained statistically significant with the exception of gastric varices (which was based on only 30 cases). None of the two-way interaction effects between these terms were significant when applying the Bonferroni correction (p = 0.0004) or at the p = 0.001 level.