Table 1.

All-cause bivariate and multivariate child mortality risk factor analyses in Agincourt sub-district, 1992-2007

Factor	Bivariate non-spatial model			Multivariate spatio- temporal model
Factor	n	OR (95% CI)	p-value	OR (95% BCI)
Temporal
By year	1136136	1.05 (1.04-1.07)	<0.001	---
Winter season	1136136	1.36 1.15-1.60	<0.001	1.33 (1.12,1.57)
Demographic
Age (continuous)	1136136	0.50 (0.46-0.55)	<0.001	0.51 (0.46,0.56)
Male gender	1135970	1.07 (0.91-1.26)	0.435	---
Maternal
Mozambican	13148/35845	1.72 (1.39-2.12)	<0.001	1.15 (0.93,1.40)
Mother migration (increasing number of months spent resident in site in given year of child’s life)	665539	0.93 (0.89-0.96)	<0.001	---
By age (in years)
1-1.99	192999	0.93 (0.88-0.98)	0.004	---
2-2.99	190637	0.90 (0.84-0.96)	0.002	---
3-3.99	194671	1.04 (0.89-1.22)	0.585	---
4-4.99	87232	0.92 (0.80-1.06)	0.248	---
Mother death	1152/1136136	5.16 (4.03-6.61)	<0.001	---
Mother death in 1-4 not due to HIV/tuberculosis	191/1136136	7.77 (4.43-13.65)	<0.001	5.17 (2.84,8.29)
Mother death in 1-4 due to HIV/tuberculosis	66/1136136	19.92 (10.40-38.19)	<0.001	13.52 (7.57,21.68)
Mothers age	1045197	0.98 (0.97-0.99)	0.001	---
Mother education	364244	0.98 (0.96-1.01)	0.262	---
None	57168	Ref
Primary	96422	1.01 (0.69-1.47)	0.973	---
Secondary	188891	0.94 (0.67-1.33)	0.739	---
Tertiary	21763	0.49 (0.23-1.04)	0.064	---
Paternal
Father death before birth to 4	580/1136136	2.41 (1.53-3.82)	<0.001	---
Father death before birth to 4 not due to	430/1136136	2.07 (1.06-4.02)	<0.001
HIV/tuberculosis				1.44 (0.73,2.41)
Father death before birth to 4 due to	150/1136136	5.06 (2.48-10.41)	<0.001
HIV/tuberculosis				1.99 (0.86,3.68)
Household demographics
Male household head	970917	0.78 (0.60-1.02)	0.067	---
Mozambican household head	967490	1.61 (1.24-2.09)	<0.001	---
Household head age (continuous)	959306	1.00 (0.99-1.01)	0.511	---
1-3 children in household aged <5 years	1008756	1.00		1.00
4+ children in household aged <5 years	119644	1.52 (1.21-1.91)	<0.001	1.52 (1.18,1.90)
Household size (count of individuals)	1136132	1.02 (1.01-1.04)	0.002	---
Cumulative number of household deaths	1136136
None	934491	1.00
1	155545	41.32 (30.77-55.49)	<0.001	---
2-3	43514	62.95 (45.71-86.71)	<0.001	---
≥4	2586	106.90 (59.28-192.77)	<0.001	---
Fertility
Pregnancy parity	23703	0.99 (0.90-1.08)	0.793	---
1	14572	1.00
2-4	8560	1.05 (0.86-1.28)	0.617	---
≥5	571	0.20 (0.05-0.82)	0.025	---
Preceding birth interval	7078	0.98 (0.95-1.01)	0.157	---
Post birth interval	6925	0.90 (0.82-0.99)	0.035	---
Previous birth stillborn	288/23703	0.68 (0.25-1.84)	0.452	---
Previous sibling died	800/23703	1.63 (1.08-2.45)	0.019	---
Mother attended antenatal clinic	20849/21215	0.48 (0.28-0.83)	0.008	---
Number of antenatal clinic visits	14119	0.92 (0.88-0.97)	<0.001	---
Socio-economic status of household
SES MCAδ score quintiles	358524
Most poor	63390	1.00
Very poor	69347	0.74 (0.51-1.07)	0.112	---
Poor	73736	0.63 (0.43-0.92)	0.017	---
Less poor	76396	0.60 (0.41-0.87)	0.008	---
Least poor	75655	0.43 (0.28-0.66)	<0.001	---
Individual variation (${\sigma }_{\epsilon }^2$)	---	---	---	0.04 (0.01,0.11)
Spatial variation (${\sigma }_{\phi }^2$)	---	---	---	0.23 (0.10,0.48)
Temporal variation (${\sigma }_t^2$)	---	---	---	0.29 (0.12,0.68)

α Infectious or parasitic child deaths only

β No child deaths

δ: Similar findings when using the absolute score index

Household head age was not significant

Straight distance from household and network distance from village centroid to nearest health facility (by category <5 and >=5km) were not significant.