Table 3.
Comparison of the expected cases (E) of invasive breast cancer predicted by each respective model, to the observed cases (O) in the Singapore Breast Screening Programme (SBSP) cohort for each ethnic group
|
Age at entry, (y) |
No. of women followed |
|
|
GAIL-SBSP |
|
|
S-GAIL-SBSP |
|
|
E-GAIL-SBSP |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O | E | E/O (CI) | P | E | E/O (CI) | P | E | E/O (CI) | P | ||
|
Overall |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 45–49 |
109 |
0 |
0.95 |
– |
0.092 |
0.97 |
– |
0.111 |
0.96 |
– |
0.006 |
| 50–59 |
13,911 |
144 |
124.11 |
0.86 (0.73 to 1.01) |
|
124.86 |
0.87 (0.74 to 1.02) |
|
149.12 |
1.04 (0.88 to 1.22) |
|
| 60–69 |
14,642 |
95 |
115.38 |
1.21 (0.99 to 1.49) |
|
114.57 |
1.21 (0.99 to 1.47) |
|
137.70 |
1.45 (1.19 to 1.77) |
|
| 70–74 |
221 |
2 |
1.40 |
0.70 (0.18 to 2.80) |
|
1.40 |
0.70 (0.17 to 2.80) |
|
1.69 |
0.85 (0.21 to 3.38) |
|
| Total |
28,883 |
241 |
241.83 |
1.00 (0.88 to 1.14) |
0.957 |
241.80 |
1.00 (0.88 to 1.14) |
0.959 |
289.47 |
1.20 (1.06 to 1.36) |
0.004 |
|
Chinese |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 45–49 |
93 |
0 |
0.85 |
– |
0.440 |
0.87 |
– |
0.480 |
0.84 |
– |
0.076 |
| 50–59 |
11,795 |
119 |
109.98 |
0.92 (0.77 to 1.11) |
|
109.64 |
0.92 (0.77 to 1.10) |
|
127.35 |
1.07 (0.89 to 1.28) |
|
| 60–69 |
12,256 |
87 |
99.85 |
1.15 (0.93 to 1.42) |
|
98.22 |
1.13 (0.91 to 1.39) |
|
115.12 |
1.32 (1.07 to 1.63) |
|
| 70–74 |
195 |
2 |
1.21 |
0.60 (0.15 to 2.42) |
|
1.20 |
0.60 (0.15 to 2.40) |
|
1.44 |
0.72 (0.18 to 2.88) |
|
| Total |
24,339 |
208 |
211.88 |
1.02 (0.89 to 1.17) |
0.790 |
209.93 |
1.01 (0.88 to 1.16) |
0.894 |
244.75 |
1.18 (1.03 to 1.35) |
0.019 |
|
Malay |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 45–49 |
7 |
0 |
0.05 |
– |
0.652 |
0.06 |
– |
0.591 |
0.05 |
– |
0.209 |
| 50–59 |
711 |
4 |
4.91 |
1.23 (0.46 to 3.27) |
|
5.23 |
1.31 (0.49 to 3.48) |
|
7.27 |
1.82 (0.68 to 4.85) |
|
| 60–69 |
889 |
2 |
5.41 |
2.71 (0.68 to 10.82) |
|
5.67 |
2.84 (0.71 to 11.34) |
|
7.72 |
3.86 (0.97 to 15.43) |
|
| 70–74 |
12 |
0 |
0.08 |
– |
|
0.08 |
– |
|
0.11 |
– |
|
| Total |
1,619 |
6 |
10.46 |
1.74 (0.78 to 3.88) |
0.168 |
11.04 |
1.84 (0.83 to 4.09) |
0.130 |
15.15 |
2.53 (1.13 to 5.62) |
0.019 |
|
Indian |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 45–49 |
5 |
0 |
0.03 |
– |
<0.001 |
0.03 |
– |
<0.001 |
0.02 |
– |
0.002 |
| 50–59 |
683 |
16 |
4.75 |
0.30 (0.18 to 0.48) |
|
5.08 |
0.32 (0.19 to 0.52) |
|
6.98 |
0.44 (0.27 to 0.71) |
|
| 60–69 |
727 |
1 |
5.34 |
5.34 (0.75 to 37.90) |
|
5.56 |
5.56 (0.78 to 39.49) |
|
7.58 |
7.58 (1.07 to 53.79) |
|
| 70–74 |
7 |
0 |
0.04 |
– |
|
0.04 |
– |
|
0.05 |
– |
|
| Total | 1,422 | 17 | 10.16 | 0.60 (0.37 to 0.96) | 0.032 | 10.71 | 0.63 (0.39 to 1.01) | 0.055 | 14.64 | 0.86 (0.54 to 1.38) | 0.537 |