Table 1.
Mean | Distribution | Parameter | References | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Demographic data | ||||
Population by age |
|
|
|
15 |
1--5 years old |
6.63% |
|
|
|
6—12 years old |
7.17% |
|
|
|
13—19 years old |
6.86% |
|
|
|
20—39 years old |
36.65% |
|
|
|
40—64 years old |
30.46% |
|
|
|
65+ years old |
12.24% |
|
|
|
Percentage of adult population affected by school closure: |
|
|
|
15 |
kindergarten (1-5 years old) |
4.54% |
|
|
|
kindergarten/primary school (1-11 years old) |
10% |
|
|
|
Disease parameters | ||||
Basic reproductive number (R0) |
1.5, 2.0, 2.5 |
|
|
31; 32; 8 |
Mean duration of exposed period |
1.9 days |
|
|
17; 18 |
Mean duration of infectious period |
7 days (<12 years) 5 days (12+ years) |
|
|
17; 18; 19 |
Proportion asymptomatic (p) |
33% |
|
|
|
Infectivity (last exposed stage) |
50% |
|
|
19 |
Infectivity (in the five infectious stages) |
100%, 100%, 50%, 30%, 15% |
|
|
19;20 |
Mixing assumptions | ||||
Scenario A (baseline) |
|
|
|
|
Reduction in contact rate between dismissed children of same/other age groups |
90%/25% |
|
|
|
Reduction in contact rate among care-taking parents and same age group |
0% |
|
|
|
Scenario B | ||||
Reduction in contact rate between dismissed children of same/other age groups |
90%/25% |
|
|
|
Reduction in contact rate among care-taking parents and same age group |
50% |
|
|
|
Scenario C | ||||
Reduction in contact rate between dismissed children of same/other age groups |
50%/10% |
|
|
|
Reduction in contact rate among care-taking parents and same age group |
0% |
|
|
|
Disease outcomes | ||||
Outcomes per 1000 cases by age groupsa |
|
|
|
25 |
Outpatient |
(534, 389, 497) |
Uniform |
((494-574), (369-410), (487-506)) |
|
Inpatient |
(4, 8, 29) |
|
((1-8), (2-13), (21-37)) |
|
Death |
(1, 2, 13) |
|
((0-2),(0-4),(11-15)) |
|
Economic parameters | ||||
Cost of energy saving (1000 US$) |
1 439 |
Gammab |
α=16; β=90 |
Oslo Municipality |
Cost of lost learning (1000 US$) |
25 797 |
Gamma |
α=16; β=1 612 |
Bjørknes private school |
Proportion of productivity loss catching up |
15% |
Uniform |
range [0: 30%] |
|
Average cost per self-care person (US$) |
43 |
Normal |
σ=3.57 |
26 |
Average cost per out-patient (US$) |
59 |
Normal |
σ=4.92 |
Den norske legeforening |
Average cost per in-patient (US$) |
5 211 |
Normal |
σ=434 |
26 |
Average wage per day (US$) | 290 | Normal | σ=24 | 15 |
aAge groups were grouped by 1—18 years old, 19—64 years old and 65+years old.
b where Γ is the Gamma function.