Table 5.

Pair-wise discrimination comparison of models and summary of discrimination and calibration performance for each model

Model	Experimental model (EM)		Original Apfel model (OAM)		Refitted Apfel model (RAM)		Simplified Apfel risk score (SARS)
	Diff.	p Value	Diff.	p Value	Diff.	p Value	Diff.	p Value
Experimental model (EM)
Original Apfel model (OAM)	0.118	<0.0001
Refitted Apfel model (RAM)	0.110	<0.0001	−0.009	0.48
Simplified Apfel risk score (SARS)	0.112	<0.0001	−0.006	0.43	0.003	0.73
Refitted Sinclair model (RSM)	0.028	0.03	−0.090	0.0001	−0.082	<0.0001	−0.085	0.0001

Model	AUC for test set	95% CI for AUC	HL χ2	HL (p)
Experimental model (EM)	0.738	0.698 to 0.779	10.0	0.27
Original Apfel model (OAM)	0.620	0.576 to 0.665	66.9	<0.0001
Refitted Apfel model (RAM)	0.629	0.585 to 0.673	1.8	0.87
Simplified Apfel risk score (SARS)	0.626	0.584 to 0.668	0.5	0.77
Refitted Sinclair model (RSM)	0.711	0.669 to 0.752	7.4	0.50

AUC, area the under receiver operating characteristic curve; Diff, AUC difference; HL χ², Hosmer–Lemeshow χ²; HL (p), Hosmer–Lemeshow probability > χ²; p Value, p value of difference.