Fig. 3.

Probability of Arctic char occurrence in 1961–1990 and in 2091–2100 given the final logistic regression model, which used ln lake area, average annual air temperature, and the occurrence of pike and brown trout as predictor variables. Average annual air temperature was derived from the RCA3 regional atmospheric model using the B2 emissions scenario. Observed brown trout distributions were used for both time periods, but predictions from a separate model (Hein et al. 2011) were used to define pike distributions in both time periods