For t0 = 6 months (183 days) and τ = 1 year, estimates of P̂t0,τ,ts,z = P̂(T ≤ t0 + τ | T
> t0, T = ts, Z = z) over time for two patients with T = ts ≤ t0 who differ only by history of HF are shown. Both patients were hospitalized one time and have the following baseline covariate values: age = 76, albumin = 3.2, using erythropoietin, serum creatinine = 6.5, no prior history of arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or cancer, but one patient has prior history of HF (solid black thin line) while the other has no prior history of HF (solid black thick line). Note that using baseline covariate information only, P̂(T ≤ t0 + τ | T > t0, Z = z) is equal to 0.21 and 0.18 for the patient with prior history of HF and for the patient without prior history of heat failure, respectively.