Table 4.
Bayes factor scores (from Tracer v1.5) from comparisons of alternative tree models for the BEAST divergence time analyses
| Tree model | estimated mean -lnL | S. E. |
2 (ln Bayes factor score) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. Yule | vs. birth-death | vs. coalescent (constant size) | vs. coalescent (expansion) | |||
| Yule |
−4236.94 |
±2.085 |
– |
−179.978 |
−160.334 |
−157.378 |
| birth-death |
−4146.95 |
±1.191 |
179.978 |
– |
19.644 |
22.602 |
| coalescent (constant size) |
−4156.77 |
±1.113 |
160.334 |
−19.644 |
– |
2.956 |
| coalescent (expansion) | −4158.25 | ±0.912 | 157.378 | −22.602 | −2.956 | – |
Strong support for the birth-death model was indicated, according to the criterion 2 ln Bayes factor > 10.