Exhibit 3. Relative utilization (RU) and health differences for MA disenrollees vs. incumbent TM beneficiaries and vs. MA stayers from 2001 to 2007.
| Measure of utilization or health | 2001-2003 | 2004-2005 | 2006-2007 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||
| Total utilization | |||
| MA disenrollees vs. TM incumbents | |||
| RU | 0.94 | 1.07 | 1.33** |
| Change in RU | - | 1.30 | 1.64*** |
| MA disenrollees vs. MA stayers | |||
| RU | 1.15 | 1.39** | 1.64*** |
| Change in RU | - | 1.21 | 1.43** |
|
| |||
| Hospitalizations | |||
| MA disenrollees vs. TM incumbents | |||
| RU | 1.00 | 1.41** | 1.80*** |
| Change in RU | - | 1.41* | 1.79*** |
| MA disenrollees vs. MA stayers | |||
| RU | 1.18 | 1.52** | 1.83*** |
| Change in RU | - | 1.29 | 1.55** |
|
| |||
| Prescription drug fills | |||
| MA disenrollees vs. TM incumbents | |||
| RU | 0.99 | 1.07 | 1.42**** |
| Change in RU | - | 1.08 | 1.43*** |
| MA disenrollees vs. MA stayers | |||
| RU | 1.06 | 1.09 | 1.26** |
| Change in RU | - | 1.03 | 1.19 |
|
| |||
| General health status (1 excellent – 5 poor) | |||
| MA disenrollees vs. TM incumbents | |||
| Absolute difference | −0.03 | 0.20* | 0.25* |
| Change in difference | - | 0.23** | 0.28* |
| MA disenrollees vs. MA stayers | |||
| Absolute difference | 0.06 | 0.29** | 0.28** |
| Change in difference | - | 0.23* | 0.22 |
|
| |||
| Health fair or poor | |||
| MA disenrollees vs. TM incumbents | |||
| OR | 0.87 | 1.43 | 1.63** |
| Change in OR | - | 1.64** | 1.87** |
| MA disenrollees vs. MA stayers | |||
| OR | 1.09 | 1.75** | 1.80** |
| Change in OR | - | 1.60* | 1.65* |
|
| |||
| Health worse or much worse | |||
| MA disenrollees vs. TM incumbents | |||
| OR | 0.95 | 1.49** | 1.57** |
| Change in OR | - | 1.57** | 1.66** |
| MA disenrollees vs. MA stayers | |||
| OR | 1.14 | 1.96*** | 1.76** |
| Change in OR | - | 1.73** | 1.55* |
*
p <0.1
**
p < 0.05
***
p < 0.01
****
p<0.001
Source: Authors’ analysis of survey and linked Medicare enrollment data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey.
Notes: MA denotes Medicare Advantage, and TM denotes traditional Medicare. CI denotes confidence interval, and OR denotes odds ratio. Relative utilization (RU) equals utilization by MA disenrollees divided by utilization by comparison group. Change in relative utilization equals RU in 2004-2005 or 2006-2007 divided by RU in 2001-2003.