Table 2.

Prognosis for recovery from long-term pain (>30 days with pain during last year) in the low back, neck/shoulders, and knees at follow-up

			Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
Condition at baseline	Perceived exertion	N	OR	95% CI	OR	95% CI	OR	95% CI
Long-term low back pain	Strenuous	434	1.00	-	1.00	-	1.00	-
(N = 1089)	Moderate	448	1.21	0.94 - 1.55	1.14	0.87 - 1.48	1.05	0.80 – 1.37
	Light	207	1.61	1.17 - 2.21	1.57	1.13 - 2.19	1.42	1.01 – 1.99
Long-term neck/ shoulder pain	Strenuous	515	1.00	-	1.00	-	1.00	-
(N = 1400)	Moderate	562	1.21	0.94 - 1.56	1.18	0.90 - 1.53	1.10	0.84 – 1.45
	Light	323	2.02	1.55 - 2.63	1.97	1.50 - 2.60	1.89	1.43 – 2.50
Long-term knee pain	Strenuous	206	1.00	-	1.00	-	1.00	-
(N = 579)	Moderate	221	1.01	0.72 - 1.41	0.98	0.69 - 1.38	0.93	0.65 – 1.34
	Light	152	1.28	0.86 - 1.90	1.22	0.80 - 1.87	1.00	0.62 – 1.63

*) among those without pain in this specific region at baseline.

Model 1: Adjusted for age.

Model 2: Adjusted for age, BMI, smoking, tenure, and leisure physical activity.

Model 3: Adjusted for age, BMI, smoking, tenure, leisure physical activity, and psychosocial work environment.

The odds ratios (OR’s) from light and moderate perceived physical exertion are given, referencing strenuous perceived physical exertion.