Table 2.
Base-Case Results: Projected Maternal and Pediatric Outcomes of the Zimbabwe National Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission Program
| Pediatric Life Expectancy, Years From Birth |
Maternal Life Expectancy, Years From Delivery |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18-Month Infant HIV Infection Risk | Undiscounted | Discounted | Undiscounted | Discounted | |
| Projected Clinical Outcomesa | |||||
| No antenatal ARVsb | 24.8% | 38.35 | 21.34 | 21.25 | 14.69 |
| sdNVP | 14.2% | 41.30 | 22.45 | 20.94 | 14.53 |
| Option A | 7.5% | 43.27 | 23.19 | 21.26 | 14.70 |
| Option B | 5.7% | 44.18 | 23.59 | 21.30 | 14.74 |
| Option B+ | 5.7% | 44.18 | 23.59 | 22.42 | 15.45 |
| Antenatal Care Costs, Through Delivery | Pediatric Lifetime Healthcare Costs, From Birth |
Maternal Lifetime HIV-Related Healthcare Costs, From Delivery |
|||
| Undiscounted | Discounted | Undiscounted | Discounted | ||
| Projected costs, 2008 US Dollarsa | |||||
| No antenatal ARVsb | 85 | 730 | 520 | 8490 | 5280 |
| sdNVP | 92 | 530 | 360 | 8460 | 5300 |
| Option A | 118 | 490 | 310 | 8500 | 5280 |
| Option B | 134 | 370 | 240 | 8450 | 5260 |
| Option B+ | 134 | 370 | 240 | 9820 | 6240 |
Abbreviations: ARVs, antiretroviral medications; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; sdNVP, single-dose nevirapine.
a Base-case projections assume 100% uptake of PMTCT services by the time of delivery, 100% linkage to HIV care during breastfeeding, no maternal loss to follow-up after delivery, and 100% availability of pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected infants (see Methods).
b No antenatal ARVs refers to receipt of no ARVs or antiretroviral therapy prior to delivery. In all modeled strategies, ART-eligible women who linked to HIV-related healthcare after delivery were assumed to receive ART for their own health in all strategies (Supplementary Table 1).