Table 3. Parameter values used for determining the probability of detecting CWD using IHC or sPMCA over time, given that the deer is infected [P(A|B)].

Parameter	Month	All deer		Genotype 1		Genotype 2
		IHC	sPMCA	IHC	sPMCA	IHC	sPMCA
P(B|A)	Constant	1.000*	0.992†	1.000*	0.992†	1.000*	0.992†
P(A)‡	3	0.129	0.289	0.182	0.408	0.308	0.305
	6	0.313	0.436	0.348	0.520	0.462	0.459
	12	0.710	0.838	0.727	0.862	0.769	0.844
	Term	0.846	0.897	0.846	0.922	0.882	0.880
P(B)§	3	0.871 (27)	0.871 (27)	0.818 (18)	0.818 (18)	0.692 (9)	0.692 (9)
	6	0.875 (28)	0.875 (28)	0.826 (19)	0.826 (19)	0.692 (9)	0.692 (9)
	12	0.871 (27)	0.871 (27)	0.818 (18)	0.818 (18)	0.692 (9)	0.692 (9)
	Term	0.897 (35)	0.897 (35)	0.846 (22)	0.846 (22)	0.765 (13)	0.765 (13)

^*Assumed value, based on IHC being the gold standard diagnostic test.

^†Conservative value derived from Haley et al. (2011). If based on the present study, this value would have been 1.

^‡Pr(pos), Pr(neg), Pr(iden pos) and Pr(iden neg) values were determined from data collected in the present study.

^§Values vary due to fluctuations in the sample size of infected deer at monthly intervals, shown in parentheses. The number of negative controls (n = 4) was invariant among months.