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. 2013 Jan 17;62(2):639–648. doi: 10.2337/db12-0495

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© 2013 by the American Diabetes Association.

Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ for details.

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FIG. 2. — Relative contribution of metabolites to predict T2D in EPIC-Potsdam. Presented are ROC curves comparing different multivariable-adjusted models to predict T2D, including the DRS, the identified metabolites, glucose (Glc), and HbA_1c. The DRS (16) combines information on several diabetes risk factors, such as diet, lifestyle, and anthropometry, to estimate risk of developing T2D. The DRS is computed according to the following formula: DRS = (7.4 × waist circumference [cm]) − (2.4 × height [cm]) + (4.3 × age [years]) + (46 × hypertension [self-report]) + (49 × red meat [each 150 g/day]) – (9 × whole-grain bread [each 50 g/day]) – (4 × coffee [each 150 g/day]) – (20 × moderate alcohol [between 10 and 40 g/day]) – (2 × physical activity [h/week]) + (24 × former smoker) + (64 × current heavy smoker [≥ 20 cigarettes/day]). Metabolites are hexose; phenylalanine; glycine; sphingomyelin C16:1; diacyl-phosphatidylcholines C32:1, C36:1, C38:3, and C40:5; acyl-alkyl-phosphatidylcholines C34:3, C40:6, C42:5, C44:4, and C44:5; and lysophosphatidylcholine C18:2.