Table 3.
Between-trial variance estimates (posterior distribution median) for the comparisons that were also informed by head-to-head evidence in the treatment network in the second illustrative example
| |
Between-trial variance estimates |
Model fit statistics |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Models | Trt1 vs Placebo | Trt2 vs Placebo | Trt3 vs Placebo | Trt4 vs Placebo | Trt2 vs Trt1 | pD | DIC |
|
Random-effects pair wise meta-analysis | |||||||
| Frequentist (DerSimonian-Laird) |
0.086 |
0.110 |
0.016 |
0.075 |
0.106 |
-- |
-- |
| Frequentist (Hartung-Makimbi) |
0.083 |
0.103 |
0.040 |
0.072 |
0.112 |
-- |
-- |
| Bayesian (weakly informative) |
0.100 |
0.371 |
0.023 |
0.103 |
0.334 |
-- |
-- |
| Bayesian (frequentist informed) |
0.087 |
0.121 |
0.036 |
0.067 |
0.093 |
-- |
-- |
| Bayesian (empirically informed) |
0.088 |
0.110 |
0.021 |
0.054 |
0.059 |
-- |
-- |
|
Random-effects MTC models |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Weakly informed variance models | |||||||
| Homogeneous variance model |
0.078 |
0.078 |
0.078 |
0.078 |
0.078 |
138.8 |
1229.1 |
| Unrestricted variances |
0.100 |
0.469 |
0.023 |
0.104 |
0.214 |
138.3 |
1229.9 |
| Exchangeable variances* |
0.092 |
0.226 |
0.009 |
0.066 |
0.047 |
133.7 |
1232.2 |
| Consistency variances structure |
0.091 |
0.172 |
0.033 |
0.075 |
0.133 |
136.6 |
1230.0 |
| Moderately informed variance models |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Frequentist informed priors |
0.087 |
0.172 |
0.036 |
0.069 |
0.064 |
135.6 |
1226.4 |
| Empirically informed priors | 0.087 | 0.199 | 0.020 | 0.054 | 0.042 | 133.8 | 1229.5 |
* The’average’ variance was 0.173.
Abbreviations: DIC (Deviance information criterion); pD (effective number of model parameters); Trt (Treatment).