Table 3. Ecological analyses of monkeypox outbreak, Southern Sudan, 2005*.
| Locality | Value | AMT, °C | MDR, °C | MTWM, °C | MTCM, °C | AP, mm | PWM, mm | PDM, mm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-Saharan Africa | Mean | 23.60 | 13.052 | 33.309 | 13.060 | 978.17 | 195.34 | 9.23 |
| Min | −3.0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | −8.6 | 8 | 3 | 0 | |
| Max | 31.9 | 20.8 | 42.5 | 23.3 | 4552 | 1157 | 165 | |
|
|
SD |
3.525 |
2.459 |
3.933 |
5.589 |
569.75 |
97.94 |
18.54 |
| Sudan | Mean | 27.4 | 13.925 | 37.3 | 17.525 | 821 | 193.25 | 0 |
| Min | 27.3 | 13.9 | 37.1 | 17.5 | 815 | 192 | 0 | |
| Max | 27.6 | 14.0 | 37.7 | 17.6 | 829 | 195 | 0 | |
|
|
SD |
0.141 |
0.05 |
0.282 |
0.05 |
5.83 |
1.25 |
0 |
| SPA GARP | Mean | 24.34 | 10.59 | 31.36 | 17.55 | 1,680.45 | 253.6 | 32.86 |
| Min | 16.1 | 7.4 | 24.5 | 5.9 | 803 | 135 | 3 | |
| Max | 27.80 | 15.4 | 36.9 | 21.9 | 2902 | 699 | 137 | |
|
|
SD |
1.392 |
1.156 |
1.63 |
2.170 |
263.133 |
54.746 |
28.442 |
| SPA Maxent | Mean | 24.74 | 10.24 | 31.32 | 18.43 | 1,745.54 | 251.6 | 38.26 |
| Min | 13.7 | 5.4 | 19.4 | 7.8 | 941 | 157 | 1 | |
| Max | 27.8 | 14.5 | 37.3 | 23.0 | 3303 | 798 | 137 | |
| SD | 1.224 | 1.085 | 1.41 | 1.927 | 254.025 | 60.917 | 29.946 |
*Deviation values for climatic environmental variables within the study region (sub-Saharan Africa); at georeferenced points of human monkeypox occurrences in Sudan; and within the suitable predicted areas for monkeypox identified by each algorithm, GARP, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (http://openmodeller.sourceforge.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8&itemid=4) and Maxent [www.cs.princeton.edu/~schapire/maxent/). AMT, annual mean temperature; MDR, mean diurnal range; MTWM; maximum temperature of the warmest month; MTCM, minimum temperature of the coldest month; AP, annual precipitation; PWM, precipitation of the wettest month; PDM, precipitation of the driest month; Min, minimum; Max, maximum; SPA, suitable predicted areas for monkeypox transmission.