Table 3.
Association of Change in cTnT Concentration With Subsequent Heart Failure and Cardiovascular Death
| All Participants With Baseline cTnT (n = 2918)
|
Participants With Detectable Baseline cTnT Only (n = 1797)
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Undetectable at Follow-up (n = 1036) | Detectable at Follow-up (n = 1882) | >50% Increase (n = 393) | Change ≤50% (n = 1157) | >50% Decrease (n = 247) | |
| Heart failure | (n = 182) | (n = 625) | (n = 155) | (n = 366) | (n = 56) |
|
| |||||
| Incidence rate (95% CI), per 100 person-years | 1.5 (1.3–1.7) | 3.7 (3.5–4.0) | 5.3 (4.5–6.2) | 3.5 (3.1–3.8) | 2.0 (1.5–2.6) |
|
| |||||
| Hazard ratio (95% CI) | |||||
| Unadjusteda | 1 [Reference] | 2.06 (1.70–2.50) | 1.73 (1.44–2.10) | 1 [Reference] | 0.57 (0.43–0.76) |
|
| |||||
| Adjusted for demographic factorsb | 1 [Reference] | 1.82 (1.50–2.21) | 1.67 (1.38–2.02) | 1 [Reference] | 0.65 (0.49–0.86) |
|
| |||||
| Adjusted for demographic and traditional risk factorsc | 1 [Reference] | 1.70 (1.39–2.07) | 1.61 (1.32–1.97) | 1 [Reference] | 0.73 (0.54–0.97) |
|
| |||||
| Adjusted for demographic factors, traditional risk factors, and NT-proBNP and CRP | 1 [Reference] | 1.55 (1.26–1.90) | 1.40 (1.14–1.71) | 1 [Reference] | 0.74 (0.55–1.00) |
|
| |||||
| Cardiovascular death | (n = 142) | (n = 534) | (n = 140) | (n = 321) | (n = 48) |
|
| |||||
| Incidence rate (95% CI), per 100 person-years | 1.1 (0.9–1.3) | 2.8 (2.6–3.1) | 4.1 (3.5–4.8) | 2.6 (2.4–3.0) | 1.6 (1.2–2.1) |
|
| |||||
| Hazard ratio (95% CI) | |||||
| Unadjusteda | 1 [Reference] | 1.94 (1.56–2.41) | 1.79 (1.47–2.19) | 1 [Reference] | 0.57 (0.42–0.77) |
|
| |||||
| Adjusted for demographic factorsb | 1 [Reference] | 1.63 (1.31–2.04) | 1.72 (1.40–2.11) | 1 [Reference] | 0.68 (0.50–0.93) |
|
| |||||
| Adjusted for demographic and traditional risk factorsd | 1 [Reference] | 1.57 (1.25–1.95) | 1.65 (1.35–2.03) | 1 [Reference] | 0.71 (0.52–0.97) |
|
| |||||
| Adjusted for demographic factors, traditional risk factors, and NT-proBNP and CRP | 1 [Reference] | 1.39 (1.12–1.74) | 1.38 (1.11–1.71) | 1 [Reference] | 0.75 (0.55–1.02) |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; CRP, C-reactive protein; cTnT, cardiac troponin T; NT-proBNP, N-terminal protype B natriuretic peptide.
All models additionally adjusted for baseline cTnT and for Cardiovascular Health Study cohort (main vs supplemental).
Adjusted for age, sex, and race (black vs other).
Adjusted for demographic factors and systolic blood pressure, serum glucose, albumin and creatinine concentrations, coronary heart disease, smoking status (never, current, former), heart rate, and left ventricle hypertrophy on electrocardiogram.
Adjusted for demographic factors and systolic and diastolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medications, diabetes, coronary heart disease, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and smoking status (never, current, former).