Table 3. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for developing type 2 diabetes by weighted quartile of lactate concentrations.

	Quartile of Lactate				P for trend*
	≤5.8	5.8–7.3	7.3–9.7	>9.7
Model 1	1.0 [Ref]	1.34 (0.89, 2.02)	2.13 (1.46, 3.10)	2.69 (1.84, 3.94)	<0.001
Model 2	1.0 [Ref]	1.19 (0.75, 1.89)	1.83 (1.21, 2.77)	2.41 (1.58, 3.68)	<0.001
Model 3	1.0 [Ref]	1.30 (0.79, 2.13)	1.45 (0.92, 2.29)	2.17 (1.38, 3.41)	<0.001
Model 4	1.0 [Ref]	1.27 (0.76, 2.13)	1.29 (0.80, 2.06)	2.05 (1.28, 3.28)	0.001
Model 5a	1.0 [Ref]	0.89 (0.51, 1.56)	0.78 (0.47, 1.31)	0.77 (0.44, 1.35)	0.45
Model 5b	1.0 [Ref]	1.05 (0.61, 1.81)	1.03 (0.64, 1.65)	1.46 (0.90, 2.39)	0.06
Model 5c	1.0 [Ref]	0.81 (0.46, 1.44)	0.70 (0.42, 1.18)	0.66 (0.37, 1.17)	0.26

Model 1: Age, gender, race, ARIC center, education.

Model 2: Model 1+ diagnosis of hypertension, prevalent coronary heart disease, smoking status, leisure index, parental history of diabetes.

Model 3: Model 2+ body mass index, waist circumference.

Model 4: Model 3+ log₁₀ triglycerides, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol.

Model 5a: Model 4+ fasting glucose.

Model 5b: Model 4+ log₁₀ fasting insulin.

Model 5c: Model 4+ fasting glucose and log₁₀ fasting insulin.

^*P-value for trend evaluated using an ordinal variable based on the median lactate in each quartile.