Table 3.

Model input parameters and their uncertainty distributions

Parameter	Value Mean (SE or 95%CI)	Uncertainty distribution	Sources and assumptions
RR of IHD with treatment
-Statin -Diuretic -Calcium channel blocker -ACE inhibitor -Beta-blocker	0.70 (0.61 to 0.81) 0.86 (0.75 to 0.98) 0.85 (0.78 to 0.92) 0.83 (0.78 to 0.89) 0.78 (0.89 to 1.02)	Normal (lnRR)	Meta-analyses of primary prevention trials [5,6,47]
RR of stroke with treatment
-Statin -Diuretic -Calcium channel blocker -ACE inhibitor -Beta-blocker	0.81 (0.71 to 0.93) 0.62 (0.53 to 0.72) 0.66 (0.58 to 0.75) 0.78 (0.66 to 0.92) 0.70 (0.83 to 0.99)	Normal (lnRR)	Meta-analyses of primary prevention trials [5,6,47]
RR of stroke in IHD
-Men -Women	1.32 (0.20) 1.88 (0.30)	Normal (lnRR)	Busselton study [48,49]
RR of IHD in stroke
-Men -Women	2.64 (0.07) 2.85 (0.04)	Normal (lnRR)	Busselton study [48,49]
IHD treatment cost
-First year -Subsequent years	$12,921 $4,539	Uniform	Lim [43]. Uniform distribution assumed to vary by ±25% around mean.
Stroke treatment cost
-First year -Subsequent years	$23,581 $3,201	Uniform	Lim [43]. Uniform distribution assumed to vary by ±25% around mean.
Proportion of population visiting a GP in one year
35–44 yrs 45–54 yrs 55–64 yrs 65–74 yrs 75+ yrs	Men Women 73% 88% 81% 89% 81% 89% 93% 94% 99% 99%	–	BEACH data [17]
Proportion of GPs measuring absolute risk	65% (6.5%)	Beta	Practice Incentives Program data [50].
First year drug discontinuation rate	40% (8%)	Beta	Estimate from Australian survey data [21,22]. Standard error assumed to be 20% of point estimate.

NB. All costs adjusted to 2008 Australian dollars using Australian health price deflators [39]. RR – relative risk.