Table 5.
Sensitivity analysis: number of cases avoided for the different boys and girls vaccination strategies versus boys and girls base case analysis (vaccine coverage rate: 70%, lifelong protection) and the corresponding relative reductions
|
Absolute reduction (increase) of remaining cases (n) versus base case GNV vaccination strategy |
Relative reduction (increase) of remaining cases (%) versus base case GNV vaccination strategy |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Duration of protection |
Lifetime |
32 years |
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Coverage rate |
50% |
90% |
70% |
50% |
90% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Vaccination strategy | B | C | D | E | F | B | C | D | E | F | |
| Female |
Genital warts |
40,271 |
−24,568 |
68,313 |
108,009 |
38,674 |
160.6 |
−98.0 |
272.5 |
430.8 |
154.3 |
| |
Cervical cancer |
3,212 |
−1,692 |
5,685 |
8,853 |
3,092 |
148.4 |
−78.2 |
262.7 |
409.1 |
142.9 |
| |
Vulvar cancer |
337 |
−158 |
568 |
925 |
285 |
130.3 |
−61.2 |
219.5 |
357.4 |
110.1 |
| |
Vaginal cancer |
139 |
−63 |
236 |
388 |
116 |
140.3 |
−63.7 |
238.2 |
392.2 |
117.6 |
| |
Anal cancer |
357 |
−192 |
598 |
978 |
300 |
104.6 |
−56.3 |
175.1 |
286.4 |
88.0 |
| |
Head/neck cancer |
305 |
−163 |
504 |
832 |
250 |
104.6 |
−55.9 |
173.0 |
285.3 |
85.6 |
| |
Total cancers |
4,351 |
−2,269 |
7,591 |
11,976 |
4,044 |
137.9 |
−71.9 |
240.6 |
379.6 |
128.2 |
| Male |
Genital warts |
49,534 |
−34,444 |
77,279 |
122,846 |
43,104 |
140.6 |
−97.8 |
219.3 |
348.6 |
122.3 |
| |
Penile cancers |
155 |
−124 |
237 |
358 |
130 |
44.1 |
−35.2 |
67.3 |
101.6 |
37.0 |
| |
Anal cancers |
225 |
−129 |
351 |
576 |
173 |
98.0 |
−56.0 |
152.7 |
250.6 |
75.1 |
| |
Head/neck cancer |
1,669 |
−931 |
2,636 |
4,331 |
1,306 |
108.6 |
−60.6 |
171.5 |
281.8 |
85.0 |
| |
Total cancers |
2,050 |
−1,184 |
3,224 |
5,264 |
1,609 |
96.7 |
−55.9 |
152.2 |
248.5 |
75.9 |
| Female + Male |
Genital warts |
89,805 |
−59,013 |
145,592 |
230,855 |
81,778 |
148.9 |
−97.9 |
241.4 |
382.8 |
135.6 |
| Total cancers | 6,400 | −3,453 | 10,815 | 17,240 | 5,653 | 121.4 | −65.5 | 205.1 | 326.9 | 107.2 | |
HPV, human papillomavirus.
Negative values mean a reduction of the number of HPV burden of the disease and positive values mean an increase of the burden compared with base case boys and girls vaccination strategy (GNV).