TABLE 1. Fit and plausibility of maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators of logistic parameters, by quartiles of 1980 sample size.

	Quartile
	I	II	III	IV
Sample size
No. of microregions	126	125	125	126
Minimum sample size	157	3,805	7,133	12,737
Maximum sample size	3,804	7,132	12,736	663,455
Root mean squared fitting error
Maximum likelihood	.13	.08	.07	.05
Bayesian	.27	.17	.13	.10
No. of regions with implausible parameters
Maximum likelihood	46	34	25	40
Bayesian	0	0	0	6

NOTE. Local estimates are “implausible” unless all of the following obtain: Fpre lies in the range [4,10], Fpost in [1,4], Start in [1900,∞], Duration in [10,50].