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. 2013 Feb 5;10(2):e1001381. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001381

Table 1. Examples of the development, validation, and impact of prognostic models.

Name of prognostic model Development Validation Impact
Nottingham Prognostic Index Survival in 387 women with primary, operable breast cancer [6],[74] Many studies, including an external validation in 9149 Danish patients [75] Cited in guidelines. Survey indicated use in many centres to decide on adjuvant chemotherapy [76]. Modelling study for cost effectiveness analysis [76].
Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire Acute and subacute back pain in 142 workers [20] At least 11 studies (median study size 123, range 45–298) [77][79] Cited in guidelines and websites [80],[81]. Used to select trial participants [82].
CRASH/IMPACT 6 month outcome after traumatic brain injury (n = 10 008 for CRASH, n = 8530 for IMPACT) [43] Cross-validation of CRASH on IMPACT and vice versa [43] Cited as source of prognostic risk estimation [7]. Used to select trial participants and in analysis of randomised controlled trials.
Manchester Triage System Urgency classification system by experts [21] 16 735 children in 2 Dutch hospitals [58] Widely cited in most Western guidelines. Widely implemented, even before publication.