Table 3. Type I errors for the 3 Models in the 4 Tuscan samples.

Simulated Model
CASENTINO
		MOD 1	MOD 2	MOD 3	Type I error
	MOD 1	0.98	0.00	0.02	0.02
	MOD 2	0.01	0.99	0.00	0.01
	MOD 3	0.02	0.00	0.98	0.02
MURLO
		MOD 1	MOD 2	MOD 3	Type I error
	MOD 1	0.95	0.01	0.04	0.05
	MOD 2	0.02	0.98	0.00	0.02
	MOD 3	0.07	0.00	0.93	0.07
VOLTERRA
		MOD 1	MOD 2	MOD 3	Type I error
	MOD 1	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	MOD 2	0.07	0.93	0.00	0.07
	MOD 3	0.05	0.00	0.95	0.05
FLORENCE
		MOD 1	MOD 2	MOD 3	Type I error
	MOD 1	0.92	0.03	0.05	0.08
	MOD 2	0.04	0.95	0.01	0.05
	MOD 3	0.05	0.01	0.94	0.06

For each of the modern populations listed on the Y axis, data were simulated according to three models and attributed by the LR procedure to one of the models on the X-axis. The power of the procedure in recovering the correct model is represented by the rates of correct attribution (along the main diagonal; shaded cells); the last column (Type I error) represents the fraction of cases in which the correct model was not identified.