Table 3.

Probability of tumor detection over time in the logistic growth model

		Probability of detection after
	K	10 years	20 years	30 years	40 years	50 years	60 years
0.002		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
0.004		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.003	0.008
		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.036	0.286
		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.087	0.957
0.01		0.0	0.002	0.013	0.025	0.036	0.048
		0.0	0.008	0.575	0.873	0.962	0.989
		0.0	0.01	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
0.02		0.001	0.023	0.046	0.069	0.091	0.112
		0.002	0.849	0.986	0.999	1.0	1.0
		0.002	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
0.04		0.021	0.065	0.108	0.149	0.188	0.225
		0.817	0.998	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
		1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0

The resident cells have a birth probability of , which depends on the current tumor size X. The birth probability of the mutant cells is constant . If the carrying capacity K and/or mutation rate u is small (more precisely, if ), the tumor progression is significantly slowed by the density limitation. The simulation results are averages over runs. Parameter values: growth coefficient , driver mutation rate (see Table 2 for ), detection size cells, average cell division time is 3 days. (The value 0.0 corresponds to a probability below .)