Table 3. Performance of published gene signatures.

The table shows performance measures of all published bladder cancer survival gene signatures and three progression signatures. All signatures were tested in all public datasets with survival information(muscle-invasive tumors only). The p-values represent the probabilities that there is no association between expression and survival (27). The C-statistic (C) of a leave-one-out cross-validated Cox model with the gene intensities as covariates is reported as a second performance measure. A C of 0.5 corresponds to a random model, one of 1.0 to a perfect model. All signatures were originally identified with the corresponding dataset, except for the Smith et al. signature (14), which was obtained by training with the Sanchez-Carbayo dataset (7) and with unpublished data. Our signature was obtained by using all datasets for training. Tested right endpoint was overall survival in all datasets, not necessarily the endpoint for which the signature was designed for. See Figure S6 for a detailed analysis of 41 other signatures.

Signature	Endpoint	Stage	Datasets
			Blaveri (6)		Kim (13)		Lindgren (9)		Sanchez-Carbayo (7)		Riester
			P	C	P	C	P	C	P	C	P	C
Blaveri (6)	OS	MI	0.01	0.66	0.66	0.57	0.15	0.60	0.66	0.61	0.73	0.56
Kim (13)	OS	MI	0.41	0.60	0.00	0.75	0.76	0.53	0.40	0.54	0.84	0.50
Kim (13)	DSS	MI	0.11	0.57	0.00	0.72	0.84	0.63	0.26	0.60	0.87	0.56
Kim (13)	Progression	non-MI	0.70	0.50	0.09	0.56	0.53	0.53	0.04	0.59	0.27	0.56
Lindgren (9)	OS	all	0.29	0.55	0.17	0.55	0.10	0.72	0.48	0.50	0.93	0.54
Sanchez-Carbayo (7)	OS	MI	0.15	0.56	0.56	0.54	0.33	0.50	0.02	0.60	0.39	0.50
Sanchez-Carbayo (7)	Progression	MI	0.21	0.50	0.02	0.58	0.42	0.73	0.15	0.51	0.95	0.54
Smith (14)	Progression	MI	0.42	0.54	0.17	0.54	0.15	0.58	0.15	0.60	0.79	0.50
Riester	OS	MI	0.04	0.76	0.04	0.75	0.002	0.87	0.005	0.74	0.06	0.71

P = p-value; C = C-statistic; OS = overall survival; DSS = disease-specific survival, MI=muscle-invasive