Figure 3. Reconstruction of incidence for counter-factual situations; (a) a scenario in which ART was never introduced, but patterns of sexual risk behaviour changes still occurred, (b) a scenario in which all condom use ceased in 2000, but with levels of anal sex as observed, (c) a scenario in which ART was provided at diagnosis from 2000, (d) a scenario in which testing rates increased (such that the proportion testing in the past year was 68% in 2010 compared with 25% as modelled for the actual incidence), and (e) a scenario of both higher testing and ART at diagnosis.